Chicago Trib Gives Away Obama T-Shirts With New Subcriptions: A Randy Michaels Move?

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Former Cincinnati radio shock jock Randy Michaels has been the Tribune Co.'s Chief Operating Officer (COO) for slightly more than a month. He was known for outrageous promotions during his Cincinnati days as an executive with Jacor and Clear Channel. Now there's a flap bubbling because the Chicago Tribune is giving away Obama t-shirts when people purchase a subscription. The ploy is drawing complaints that the newspaper is biased because it is piggybacking off the Illinois senator's hometown appeal in Chicago. But Sam Zell, Tribune Co.'s chairman, promised last month the Michaels' era would shatter tradition:

"Randy is one of the most creative human beings I've ever known. But he is exactly what Tribune needs to keep moving forward -- smart, decisive, relentless, irreverent, fun and cutting edge."

So far, there's no word about Michaels' role in the political tie-in to the presidential campaign. But it sure is "irreverent" by traditional newspaper standards.

America's Dumbest Democrat? Fred Hobbs Is Definitely A Candidate For The Title

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Fred Hobbs probably should begin thinking about abandoning his political career. And maybe the Ohio Democratic Party should start the movement to have him sacked. Hobbs is a member of Tennessee's Democratic Executive Committee, and he said last week that Barack Obama "may be terrorist connected for all I can tell."

From Andy Sher at Chattanooga's Times-Free Press the world is learning that Hobbs is now apologizing. Hobbs, a former state rep and smalltown mayor, says he got the idea that Sen. Obama was "terrorist connected" from watching FOX TV. He did not apologize for watching FOX. Sher got the apology letter Hobbs is sending to other Tennessee Democrats:

"My statement that Senator Obama 'may be terrorist connected' was incorrect and I apologize for making it." Hobbs added that his remark, "did reflect questions I had after what I had seen reported on FOX News, but I should have taken the time to check the accuracy of what I saw on television before speaking publicly." He told Sher that his comment was based "on something about Hamas endorsing him, but I think since then that's been withdrawn."

It was not clear yet if Hobbs would survive the firestorm. Pensito Review in Florida recapped the flap and said the comment sounded like it could have come from Karl Rove among other suspects. The Nashville City Paper broke the original story by asking why some Tennesee Democrats were slow to endorse Obama. Hobbs' explanation was a doozy:

" . . . I don't exactly approve of a lot of the things he stands for and I'm not sure we know enough about him. He's got some bad connections, and he may be terrorist connected for all I can tell. It sounds kind of like he may be." It was not clear yet if Hobbs would survive the firestorm.

OH-02 GOP Jean Schmidt: Supporting Imported Ethanol Refined On The Backs Of Brazilian Slaves?

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt, R-OH-02, claims falsely that China is drilling for oil off the coast of Florida. She refuses to retract the claim, and fired off a letter to Cincinnati Democratic Party Chairman Tim Burke this week that says, "I will do everything in my power to increase the supply of gasoline in this country . . ." She wants lower prices at the pumps, and is co-sponsoring a House bill that repeals federal taxes and tariffs on imported ethanol. The source of much of that foreign ethanol Schmidt wants: Brazil.

But there are reports of slavery in Brazil's ethanol industry. And does her pledge to do "everything in my power to increase the supply of gasoline in this country" mean that she has overlooked or downplayed the existence of forced labor? Does she think that Americans are so callous and thirsty for gasoline that they will condone slavery to fill their fuel tanks? The Wall Street Journal took note of the human bondage earlier this year. So did the U.S. State Department, which issued its annual country report on human rights four months ago. American ethanol used as motor fuels is distilled from corn; Brazil's is made from sugarcane. The complete text of the government's report on Brazil is available here. This description of ethanol and working conditions in Brazil seem pertinent:

"Violators for forced labor laws enjoyed virtual impunity from criminal prosecution, and no landowner has ever been convicted and imprisoned for using slave labor . . . In July MTE inspectors [government inspectors] freed 1,108 forced laborers from a sugar cane farm producing can for ethanol in Ulianopolis, Para. Several improper adjustments had been made to the workers' paychecks, often leaving workers owing money at the end of the pay period. The living quarters of the workers were overcrowded and unsanitary. The owners agreed to pay what was owed, and ethanol distributors said that they would not buy ethanol from the firm until the workers' rights were respected."

There are numerous other reports, including disclosures earlier this year that former Democratic President Bill Clinton invested in a Brazilian ethanol firm accused of mistreating workers. Clinton's connection is here, and spokesman Matt McKenna said the former president "finds these allegations deeply troubling" and expected an immediate end to the degrading conditions for the ethanol workers.

In fact, there have been a string of similar incidents in Brazil which are recounted here on McClatchy, here on FOX news, and here in the UK's Guardian. An English language Brazilian publication also raised the issue of slavery and harsh working conditions. And there's this from the Catholic News Service:

"Harvesting jobs are a magnet for unemployed laborers from other parts of Brazil, The Catholic Church office that ministers to migrants estimated that about 40,000 migrant workers help with the sugar cane harvest in Sao Paulo state. Many are bused to the farms by middlemen who charge them inflated fees for transportation, meals and supplies, creating debts that the workers cannot repay and forcing them into a form of slavery."

The Drill And Drill Now Crowd: Do They Have Lake Erie In Their Sights?

COLUMBUS (TDB) -- Ohio's Republican-controlled legislature last year formally enacted a ban that forbids offshore drilling for oil and gas in Lake Erie. But now there's a push led by President Bush and GOP lawmakers in Washington -- including John Boehner, R-08 and Jean Schmidt, R-02 -- to lift restrictions that have closed coastal sites to drillers. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists has noted Canadians are already drilling on their side of Lake Erie, and that Ohio's portion has an estimated 1.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas that are off-limits by law. There is no estimate available on the oil reserves offshore. Drilling has been forbidden in the lake because of environmental and commercial concern -- Lake Erie supplies fresh drinking water for millions and supports a billion dollar-plus tourism, recreation and sports fishing industry. Still, there are energy resources locked up beneath its surface. The 2001 geological material is available here, and says:

"The Ohio portion of Lake Erie's central basin [the area nearest Cleveland] could produce about 20 billion cubic feet of gas a day . . . which is about 20% of the gas currently produced by Ohio's onshore fields and about 2% of the state's annual consumption."

That's natural gas -- the fuel widely used to heat homes. State officials have long agreed that the gas isn't worth the environmental risks, and the formalized that consensus last year without a single dissenting vote. Gov. Ted Strickland signed the measure, which was in the 2007 budget bill. Inquiring minds are wondering: If Congress opens offshore lands to exploration, will Lake Erie eventually be tapped, and will the rigs and wells become a fact of life off America's North Coast?

Cincinnati Enquirer Parent Gannett Co. Inc's (GCI) Stock Chart: When Will The Asteroid Strike?

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The Cincinnati Enquirer has been writing a lot lately about Fifth Third Bank and its problems in a difficult business environment caused by a slow-growth economy. But the Gannett-owned newspaper has been largely silent about the near 50% plunge in its own parent company's stock price over the past year (see table). According to the chart, Gannett has done worse than its peers in the media industry, and worse than the S&P 500. None of that has been widely reported by The Enquirer, a major source of news and information in Ohio -- both online and in print. And the steep reversal in Gannett's value on Wall Street since last June is an indication that the company's business practices and business model are out of step with reality in the 2008 economy -- that it hasn't yet figured out how to compete, grow, or rally when faced with adversity. The Ohioans who depend on the company for news and information and entertainment may find themselves left in the lurch if there are cuts. John Friedman at MarketWatch, a financial news service that operates online and serves the nation's investment community, noted in commentary Thursday that Gannett and the New York Times, another newspaper giant, are both headed down, down, down:

"Meanwhile, Gannett, the publisher of USA Today [along with more than 80 other dailies, including Cincy], said its May ad revenue had dropped 14% from a year ago. Its classified ad figure fell 19% for the month, underscoring the impact of online services."

A link to Friedman's commentary is here, and its speculates the New York Times could become a takeover target as its share price falls. Gannett stock traded for a time at $91 a share in 2004, but was around $24 when the Bellwether checked today around noontime. At that price, the yield on the dividend is near 6.55%, which is better than any bank savings account pays. But how long will it be before the dividend is cut? And how long will it be before Gannett considers selling off its newspaper holdings like the Cincinnati Enquirer?

OH-02 Turns Blue In 2008: 126,739 Registered Dems Now Outnumber 121,660 Republicans

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- It doesn't look like Republican country anymore. And the sudden shift to the Democrats clearly has reshaped the political complexion of the eastern suburbs of Cincinnati, where 51,753 Democrats are now registered versus 42,527 Republicans. Those suburbs are densely populated and hold more than a third of the OH-02 electorate. They have been a pillar for Republican candidates and officeholders. Just two years ago, the GOP had a lock on the area with 17,513 more registered voters than the Dems. And across Ohio's entire 2nd Congressional District -- which touches seven southern counties near the Ohio River -- a blue wave has risen. Overall, there are 126,739 Dems compared to 121,660 Republicans, a 129 percent increase since 2006.

The dramatic change in declared party alignment could be considered bad news for Republican U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt, who is seeking reelection in a district that no longer looks to be a GOP stronghold. David Margolis, field director for Democrat Vic Wulsin, says the voter registration figures made public today show "the entire character of the district has changed. The number of committed Democrats in the 2nd District has more than doubled since March, turning what had been a Republican advantage into a Democratic majority." Wulsin lost by 2,517 votes in 2006 -- a year when the district had only 55,389 registered Dems.

Below are the latest numbers of Republicans and Democrats in the counties comprising Schmidt's district, with the counties color-coded by party. The data comes from the Ohio Secretary of State's office, which gets monthly reports on voter registrations from county election boards:
Adams County -- 4,354 D; 4,925 R, Dems up 89% since 2006.
Brown County -- 8,725 D; 6,108 R, Dems up 82% since 2006.
Clermont County (Schmidt's home county) -- 30,998 D; 38,579 R, Dems up 113% since 2006.
Hamilton County -- 51,753 D; 42,527 R, Dems up 167% since 2006.
Pike County -- 6,509 D; 2,741 R, Dems up 67% since 2006.
Scioto County -- 9,514 D; 4,242 R, Dems up 46% since 2006.
Warren County -- 14,859 D; 22,538 R, Dems up 188% since 2006.

To be fair, there are more registered Republicans in OH-02 now than in 2006, when Schmidt last faced Wulsin in a general election. GOP registrations are up by nearly 17%. But that didn't come anywhere close to keeping pace with the wave of Ohioans who registered as Democrats.

Ike's Granddaughter Bolts GOP: An Eisenhower Who Likes Obama

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Lifelong GOP voter Susan Eisenhower tells the San Francisco Chronicle that she's crossing party lines to support Democrat Barack Obama this November: "The war issue is a strong one . . . as lower-income, middle-American families are taking a disproportionate share of the burden . . . It really touches the lives of women who are left behind while their husbands are deployed overseas and families have lost a loved one." Eisenhower's comments appeared in a news story about GOP presidential candidate John McCain's efforts to attract women voters, a key bloc seen as in play after Obama's defeat of Hillary Clinton in the Dem nomination contest. But the story suggests McCain's efforts are failing, and that women are breaking for Obama. Eisenhower says Obama has shown more understanding about the issues that effect women. Her grandfather, Dwight D. Eisenhower, headed the Allied armies in Europe that defeated Hitler's forces on the Western front in World War II. President Eisenhower, a Republican, served two terms in the White House from 1953 until 1961.

Obama Softens On NAFTA: The Primary Rhetoric Was Overheated

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Barack Obama appears to be amping down on NAFTA, and now says the Democratic presidential primary was "overheated" on the free trade issue. CNNMoney.com has an advance peek at an upcoming Fortune Magazine story that describes the presumptive Democratic presidential as admitting that NAFTA isn't so bad after all. The magazine describes him as backing off a "protectionist tone" adopted last February against Hillary Clinton in the runup to Ohio's March 4 presidential primary. Back then, Obama seemed to be in the camp that contends NAFTA was disastrous for the Midwest's manufacturing economy. Indeed, the page from a mailer he distributed in Ohio (above) says, "Bad trade deals like NAFTA hurt Ohio harder than most states. Only Barack Obama has opposed NAFTA."

Note: The image of the mailer comes from a February post on Jeff Coryell's Ohio Daily Blog.

Ohio Blue Collar Jobs That Pay Up To $90,000 A Year: Nucor Steel's Hiring Hall Is Now Open

MARION, Ohio (TDB) -- The ad has been around for three days with the welcome words "now hiring for production and maintenance jobs" in an Ohio steel mill. It goes on to say average compensation for these positions ranges from $65,000 to $90,000 per year plus benefits. That kind of talk could set off something like the Oklahoma land rush in a state where nearly 250,000 manufacturing jobs have disappeared this decade. Nucor operates a steel mini-mill in Marion that makes products for the highway, construction and agricultural industries. A link to the company's Web site is here.

Cincinnati Money Manager Peter Klein: He's Singing In The Break Up G.E. Chorus

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- General Electric Co. traces its roots back to Thomas Edison, and the conglomorate is headed by another Ohio boy, CEO Jeff Immelt, who grew up in Cincinnati. GE's aircraft engine division is alongside I-75 in the Cincinnati suburb of Evendale, and the factory complex remains one of the state's largest employers and an a icon of Ohio's once-unmatched manufacturing might. But GE's stock is near 4 1/2-year lows, and a Fifth Third Bank money manager is wondering publicly if it is time for the corporate giant to start selling off big hunks of its holdings to raise the share price for investors. That should be news in Cincinnati -- home of both the bank and one of GE's largest divisions, along with thousands of GE investors and employees. Still, the local money manager's concern this week seems to have escaped notice by the local media.

Peter Klein, a senior portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management, had this to say:

"Having a more focused organization probably would benefit that organization (GE). Whether it was focused on media or focused on financials or focused on manufacturing . . . management at least ought to entertain that approach that says, 'Let's separate them and see what would happen."

GE owns NBC Universal, but also makes railroad locomotives, appliances, power plant turbines and jet engines. Some say it is hard to see how owning Meet The Press (and finding a replacement for Tim Russert) and producing TV show mixes with manufacturing engines for Boeing airliners. Fifth Third's Klein was quoted in this Reuters business news story June 16 that pointedly raised the issue of whether it is time for GE make changes and shed some of its holdings.

[UPDATE: Fifth Third lost over 27% of its share value today. Asked why, some analysts were quipping: "Because it's open." GE fell 2.25%.]

What's Different About Ohio Polling In 2008? In June 2004, Democrat Kerry Trailed Bush

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The Quinnipiac University poll of battleground states released today gives Barack Obama a six point lead over John McCain in Ohio, 48-42. But that's not how the Democrat v. Republican horse race looked in June 2004. Then, the polling at this stage of the presidential campaign in Ohio showed George Bush ahead (3 polls), or in a statistical dead heat with John Kerry (1 poll). The archival data is available by scanning down to June results on this page at Real Clear Politics. Another poll of Ohioans released this week by Public Policy Polling shows Obama up by 11, a margin that puts the Illinois senator in potential blowout territory. That's not usually the case with presidential matchups in Ohio.

At this point four years ago in Ohio, FOX TV had Bush leading 45-41; Rasmussen had Bush ahead 46-42: Zogby and the Wall Street Journal found Bush on top 50.5 to 45.1. The LA Times poll said Kerry led, 45-42, but that fell within the margin or error and meant they were in a virtual dead heat. An ARG poll is shown with Kerry ahead, but the link to the poll would not open.

Today's 2008 Q-Pac poll indicates Obama could be in better shape than Kerry ever was in Ohio, traditionally a must-win state on the road to the White House. Kerry lost Ohio by slightly less than 120,000 votes, a sliver that kept Bush in office.

OH-02 GOP Jean Schmidt: Conservative Columnist George Will Says Chinese Drilling Claim Is False

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- She drilled deep about Chinese oil wells near Florida and produced a dry hole -- her fling into offshore oil speculation was a dud. Maybe the Ohio congresswoman has finally set course from the Florida Straits for the nearby Bermuda Triangle? U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt has not yet recanted or corrected her false claim made during a speech on the House floor that Chinese oil interests have already begun drilling into offshore oil pockets near the Florida coastline. But in a column distributed today, conservative pundit George Will penned a correction for making the same untrue statement. Here's Will:

"CORRECTION: In a previous column, I stated that China, in partnership with Cuba, is drilling for oil 60 miles from the Florida coast. While Cuba has partnered with Chinese companies to drill in the Florida Straits, no Chinese company has been involved in Cuba's oil exploration that close to the U.S."

Will's admission that he was wrong is at the end of this column in Real Clear Politics. Schmidt -- a Republican seeking reelection in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District in southern Ohio near Cincinnati -- has swallowed a sea story, a myth, an urban legend. She's seen offshore Chinese oil wells where others see nothing but the sea, the beautiful sea.