CINCINNATI (TDB) -- A political editor for the well-read national Republican blog called Race 4 2008 has studied presidential poll results from the Great Lakes states -- including Ohio -- and reports they are drying up as sources of women voters who favor the GOP. He says "it appears that a trend is afoot" this summer and forecasts a political drought ahead where GOP hopes and candidates will wither. He says the region is crucial to the Republican Party with 85 electoral votes.
Mind you, this is from a Republican. He sees New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as the primary beneficiary, and believes the polls are forecasting that "Middle American women are prepared to elect Hillary Clinton president." Here's what is known about Dave G, the analyst whose identity is not fully disclosed:
"DaveG is Race 4 2008’s Contributing Editor. He is a former congressional staffer who currently resides inside the beltway and works in the legal and policy fields. Dave’s roots are in the upper Midwest, a region whose politics he knows well and which he believes is vital to the sustainability of any long-term Republican majority. In addition to his work on this blog, Dave maintains a personal political blog, Political Prognostications."
He hasn't said anything on Political Prognostications since late June, where he described himself as an attorney and "center-right Republican." That last tidbit puts him in the GOP wing that includes Ohio's Sen. George Voinovich, Indiana's Sen. Richard Lugar and Minnesota's Sen. Norm Coleman.
Everything Dave G wrote about the shift of Midwestern female voters to the Dems is here is his analysis called "American Woman." He says the GOP has lost them because it does not have a platform that appeals to their concerns.
"Midwestern women have for some reason decided that they like Hillary Clinton, and that they don't really like any of our guys. As such, it doesn't matter that Midwestern men aren't voting for Hillary. Cantankerous old New Deal coots and white ethnics in Rust Belt urban areas, it has been said, would vote for a guy like John Kerry -- a veteran, a practicing Catholic, etc., -- but would never pull the lever for the shrillness of Hillary Rodham. And yes, it does appear that those Midwestern men will be voting GOP by a wider margin than in 2004, when male voters in Ohio favored Bush over Kerry by just 5 points. But these gains will be more than canceled out by Midwestern women. Female voters in Ohio were evenly divided in 2004 between Bush and Kerry. Next year, they will be voting Democrat by a landslide unless something is done to once again appeal to the (collective shudder) soccer moms that will apparently control the Electoral College in 2008. Without a GOP platform that can appeal to the concerns of Middle American women, a Democratic government in January 2009 becomes a foregone conclusion."