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Sunday, March 02, 2008

Ohio Presidential Primary Polling Scorecard: Obama/Hillary By All The Numbers

COLUMBUS (TDB) -- [Update: 11 polls now at 8:15 a.m. March 2.] Here's the rundown on all the available recent polling in Ohio ahead of the March 4 Democratic primary. Overall, the newest polls to date show the race looks incredibly tight. Data will be updated as new results are reported:

March 2: Clinton up 16. Clinton 56, Obama 40. Columbus Dispatch, 2,308 registered Democrats surveyed by mail, 2/21-2/29. This is a quirky poll. No other recent polls show a double-digit Clinton lead. And The Dispatch poll suggests Obama will lose Ohio but still be elected president in November.

March 2: Clinton up 1. Clinton 47,Obama 46. Zogby Reuters,C-SPAN, Houston Chronicle, 746 likely voters, 2/28-3/1. Obama holding in the Cleveland area; Hillary leads in Cincinnati area.

March 2: Clinton up 7. Clinton 51, Obama 44, 4% Undecided. American Research Group, 600 likely Democratic voters, 2/29-3/1. Early voters breaking for Clinton, 56-43. The early voters are expected to total 23% of ballots cast in Ohio's presidential primary.

March 1: Clinton up 4. Clinton 47, Obama 43. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research/Cleveland Plain Dealer, 625 likely Democratic voters, 2/27-2/29. This poll breaks down Ohio by the state's five regions and shows Obama leads in SW Ohio, 52-36, and Central Ohio 46-43. Hillary leads in NE Ohio, the region with the richest trove of Democrats.

March 1: Tied. Zogby Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle, 701 likely voters. Clinton 44.8, Obama 44.8, polling 2/27-2/29. Obama trending up.

February 29: Clinton up 3. Rasmussen Reports, 862 likely Democratic voters. Clinton 47, Obama 45, polling 2/25. Clinton holding, Obama inching up.

February 29: Clinton up 5. American Research Group Inc., 600 likely Democratic voters. Clinton 50, Obama 45, polling 2/27-2/28. Clinton holding, Obama trending up. Among early voters, Clinton leads 59 to 40.

February 29: Clinton up 8. Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Research Corp., 600 likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton 46, Obama 38, 14% undecided, 2/26-2/28. Party faithful Democrats favor Clinton, 48 to 38.

February 26: Clinton up 6., 2,000 Ohio adults, 1,797 registered voters, 790 likely and actual voters. Clinton 50, Obama 44, 2/23-2/25. Clinton holding in greater Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, but Obama had gained overall.

February 25: Clinton up 8. University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll, 529 likely Democratic voters. Clinton 47, Obama 39, 2/21-2/24. John Edwards -- who is on the primary ballot but out of the race -- still gets support from 9% of Ohio Dems.

February 25: Clinton up 11. Quinnipiac University, Conn., 1,853 Ohio registered voters. Clinton 51, Obama 40, 2/18-2/23. Obama gaining, college-educated voters shifted his way.

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