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| Census Finds 231,237 Adults |
A similar pattern holds true in Hamilton County, where the Census counted 612,734 adults. Voting records show 567,629 are registered. Again, upwards of 90% of the county's adult population is politically active. If the 90% number is anywhere close to being correct, then local officials and residents have been remarkably efficient in signing up voters.
Mallory, a Democrat, has long argued that Cincinnati has been growing and adding new residents over the past decade. He contends the city has at least 330,000 citizens, probably more. The Census numbers released last week poured cold water on Mayor Mallory's math. Cincinnati is supposed to have lost 10.4 % of its residents, among the nation's worst declines. But The Daily Bellwether did some quick research and discovered today that almost all of the city's adults are registered voters at the Hamilton County Board of Elections. According to the board, Hamilton County has 567,629 voters -- with 209,862 in Cincinnati.
The Census also shows the city has few children within its boundaries. There are only 65,606 kids. That means Cincinnati is somewhat like Hamlin, the fairytale town where the Pied Piper took all the children away. The Daily Bellwether spoke to Caleb Faux, a board of elections member who serves as executive director of the county Democratic Party. Faux said the city's 209,872 registered voters represents a fairly accurate number. Faux said some of those voters would have moved outside the city (he said shifts are constant as people move about or die), but that the elections board purges names and tries to keep the count as up to date as possible.
Faux explained: "In my opinion, 90% of the city's adults being registered voters is a highly unlikely number. I think it's probably more likely around 60% are registered. Maybe there are a lot of people out there who weren't counted in the Census. I think that comparing the Census to the Board of Elections registrations raises a good issue."
Ha! Bill, you know many of those registered voters are frauds. Cincinnati sounds like Chicago. Check out the graveyards for residents and voters.
ReplyDeleteBill, I hope you start hunting this down. The Census missed a lot of young people in Clifton and around the University of Cincinnati. There are thousands of students who weren't counted, workers, lots and lots of the U.C. crowd. The campus has 41,000 students. Don't go to a graveyard like Mister Ed says. He sounds like a talking horse. Naaaay.
ReplyDeleteThe mayor should challenge the numbers. (Census numbers). If there is fraud in the voting registers, how would you show it? This allegation has been around for years. Nobody proves it. Probably because they can't.
ReplyDeleteI know for one that I never received a census nor was I visited by a census worker. I even tried to get them to mail me a census to no avail...I doubt the validity of the census.
ReplyDeleteIf the voter doesn't de-register, how does the BOE know to purge them? This has been a problem in the past.
ReplyDeleteJust out of curiosity, has anyone looked at the number of Cincinnati city residents who actually voted in the past several elections and compared that to the overall percentage of the population (not % of registered voters) who voted nationally, in Ohio, and in other comparable cities? You could derive a range of likely population numbers for Cincinnati using that method.
ReplyDeleteTo answer my own question....
ReplyDeleteBased on 2008 US population of about 304,500,000 (I'd need to double check with multiple sources) and voting totals in 2008 of 131,257,542 (also needs to be verified), that means 43.1% of the total population voted. If that number held true in Cincinnati, our population in 2008 would have been 338,473 (based on 145,882 votes cast in '08).
It's a very crude method, but maybe someone out there has time to research this information for particular states and cities.
Oh, and one more thing: If Cincinnati's 2008 population was ballparked at about 300,000, that would have meant 49% of the City population voted in the presidential election. Seems awfully high compared to 43.1% nationally (my number). Big discrepancy there, but this research is way above my pay grade. I am wondering if 43% holds constant across much of the US and in urban areas. It may be plausible that Ohio and Cincinnati just had better turnout, but I don't have time to research.
ReplyDelete^ If I am reading this right 149,352 people voted in Cincinnati which is 66% of 225,680 registered voters in 2009. Faux is reporting a significant drop in registered voters from 09, too.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/archiveresults.asp
In 2006, the last off-year election, 68% of voting-age citizens were registered (per US Census Department). Using that number (although registration and turnout were lower in 2010), Cincinnati's voting-age population would be 307,734. That number does not include children. According to CPS, their enrollment is approximately 33,000. While there is some overlap between CPS enrollment and voting-age citizens, the CPS number also doesn't include children under ages 5-6. I don't think its a far reach to estimate Cincinnati's population closer to 340,000 people... unless the County Board of Elections numbers are seriously off, in which case we have other issues.
ReplyDeleteQuimbob, My hypothesis was that voter turnout in a major presidential year will be high and fairly consistent across cities and states. The question is how do you measure turnout.
ReplyDeleteI posed the question of % of population that voted because, in my mind, the occasional purging of voter registration rolls makes reliance upon voter registration numbers somewhat suspect.