University of Cincinnati's Latest Ohio Poll: Kasich's Lead Is Overwhelming IN SW Ohio

Kasich Behind In Central Ohio, Up in SW Ohio

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Today's Ohio Poll shows Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland trailing GOP nominee John Kasich statewide, with 51% of likely voters picking Kasich. The poll puts Strickland at 43% statewide with less than three weeks to Election Day. But when the numbers are broken down by geographic region, Kasich is only winning big in one section of the state, the Cincinnati area. According to the University of Cincinnati pollsters, Kasich holds a gigantic 29-point edge in the Cincinnati area -- Strickland is at 33% and Kasich 62%.  Other than that, the contest appears tight across other chunks of Ohio.

SW Ohio traditionally has been a Republican bastion and if the poll numbers are accurate it could be the region whose votes give Ohio a Republican governor over the next four years.  There is another interesting geographic wrinkle in today's Ohio Poll -- Kasich trails Strickland by an ever so tiny margin in the Columbus (Central Ohio) region. Kasich served as a Congressman from the Columbus area, and he is a well known politician there.  Kasich was also a state senator. Central Ohio is Kasich's political base, yet Strickland leads there , 49% to 48%.  Strickland's lead is razor-thin and within the poll's margin of error.  Logically, Kasich ought  be blowing Strickland out in Central Ohio because that is his backyard. But the poll suggests that Ohioans who know Kasich best -- he served as an officeholder in Central Ohio for a long time in the 1980s and 1990s -- aren't thrilled about his comeback, nor are they supporting him in droves.

Here's the geographic breakdown as reported by the Ohio Poll, which has a 3.7% margin of error. (The poll says the geographic data could fall outside the margin):

Northeast Ohio -- Strickland 47%; Kasich 49%; Don't Know 4%.
Northwest Ohio -- Strickland 39%; Kasich 45%; Don't Know 12%; Other 4%.
Central Ohio -- Strickland 49%; Kasich 48%; Don't Know, 3%.
Southeast Ohio -- Strickland 47%; Kasich 45%; Don't Know 8%.
Southwest Ohio -- Strickland 33%; Kasich 62%; Don't Know 5%

Strickland, who is from Scioto County on the Ohio River in Southeast Ohio, holds a slight lead in what is traditionally known as the Appalachian portion of the state. But the pollsters cautioned that their sample of likely voters was not large enough to ensure the results are reliable for the region.  Strickland represented the area in Congress before his election as governor in 2006. Still, it should give some comfort to Dems that the poll suggests the governor holds a slight lead in his backyard and that he also holds a slight lead on Kasich's home turf in Central Ohio.

UPDATE: 1:03 pm -- Strickland campaign manager Aaron Pickrell says the Ohio Poll has a solid reputation, but takes issue with a few of its underlying assumptions today:

"In this poll - Governor Strickland and Congressman Kasich each get 86% of their respective party's vote and Governor Strickland is winning independent voters by 1%, yet Congressman Kasich has an 8% advantage overall.  This is based on a sample that is 49% Republican, 42% Democratic and 9% Independent.  The poll conducted in September had a sample of 45% Republican, 42% Democratic and 12% Independent.  We strongly dispute a 7% Republican advantage in the turnout of this election.  If you did an apples to apples comparison of the sample used in September and the percentage of the vote each candidate receives - it would be Kasich 48% to Strickland 46%.

"Yet, even those polling numbers belie what we are seeing in early voting. Despite the so-called "enthusiasm gap," Ohio Democrats are turning out in greater numbers than Republicans. The investments that we have made in recent years in the Ohio Democratic Party have resulted in the creation of one of the strongest state parties in the nation. While the Republicans have virtually no turnout operation, the Ohio Democratic Party has a truly statewide get-out-the-vote operation that is identifying and turning out our supporters weeks before the November 2nd election.

"No one pretends this is going to be an easy election - but today's Ohio Poll does not offer an accurate snapshot of the race.  Governor Strickland is ahead by a couple of points in this race and with the superior early vote and GOTV operation - there is no question he will be successful on Election Day."

Ohio Gov. Candidate John Kasich Says He Brought Google To Wall Street: Maybe He Was a 'Little Shriveled Walnut' On the IPO

Walnuts or Wall Street?

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- GOP candidate John Kasich holds a shriveling lead in the race for Ohio governor, and he also may lead in giving himself a pat on the back for putting Google on the NASDAQ stock market.  But a former Google exec who oversaw the company's initial public offering calls the big Wall Street firms where Kasich worked "little shriveled walnuts"  who didn't truly comprehend the technology industry.  She contends Wall Street's hunger for fees and profits left growth companies SOL.  Google became a public company in August 2004.  A team of 21 investment banks, including now defunct Lehman Bros., where Kasich worked as a managing director, helped prepare Google's initial public offering.  Although Kasich does not mention his Wall Street ties in his official campaign biography, Kasich did say in the Sept. 14 debate with Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland that he had a hand in Google's success.  A link to a tape of the debate is available here. The Daily Bellwether found Kasich talking about Google at the 21:48 mark:

"I was part of the team that took Google public. We know what Google means."

Yes, we all know what Google means.  What we don't  know is what Kasich means.  Does he mean he was an important investment banker at Lehman Bros., the Wall Street company whose collapse in September 2008 helped pull down the U.S. economy?  Did he mean he was a player?  There is just not much information available about Kasich's role.  We do know that Lise Buyer was the investment banking guru at Google who was charged with taking the company public. She would have known Lehman Bros. and Kasich's role. I've not been able to contact her, but I do know she has a low opinion of the investment banks, and said firms like Lehman "emulated Audrey, the man-eating plant from 'Little Shop of Horrors,' demanding ever larger revenues to sustain their mass . . ."

Here's what Lise Buyer said about the investment banks on Feb. 9, 2009 in a column for All Things Digital:

"2. The demise of investment banks is good for IPOs. Today, we lambast investment banks because they earned it. Formerly sure-footed firms ran full speed into a bog they didn’t understand. Those whom Tom Wolfe once christened “Masters of the Universe” and “BSDs” have morphed into LSWs (little shriveled walnuts).

"How does this help the IPO market? In the heyday, technology IPOs were shepherded by boutique investment banks focused on, and economically aligned with emerging growth companies. Those banks didn’t invent, sell or swap CDOs or SIVs. Rather, in the 1990s, following the wisdom of the day, they sold out to diversified, theoretically better-capitalized, larger banks. Those acquiring banks emulated Audrey, the man-eating plant from “Little Shop of Horrors,” demanding ever larger revenues to sustain their mass, leaving new issuers who generate small fees with little IPOs, an acronym of their own; SOL.

"Now, with large investment banks hanging with the pterodactyls, there’s an opportunity for boutiques to rise again, a turn that could be very good for the IPO market."

Ohio GOP Gov Candidate John Kasich Confesses: As House Budget Chair I Screwed Up My Federal Ethics Forms

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Sloppy not crooked. Or stupid not crooked. The Kasich for Governor campaign now has an explanation for a federal financial disclosure form that shows he purchased shares in a Goldman Sachs investment fund before the fund was launched in 1999. John Kasich's excuse: He didn't manage to correctly fill out the legally required paperwork. In other words, John Kasich -- who was responsible for putting together the entire budget for the United States government -- couldn't get things right on his Ethics in Government Act report. Shades of former Ohio Gov. Bob Taft, who had his own problems with lapses on ethics forms. Kasich made his mistake in 2000, the year he wanted to campaign for the presidency. Now he's running for governor of Ohio and correcting the decade old error. Kasich is supposed to be sharp with numbers, and worked at Lehman Brothers as a managing director. He was an executive at the Wall Street investment bank when it collapsed and helped trigger the current worldwide financial crisis. Inquiring minds are wondering: Does Kasich know how to watch the store?

Get Ready For Costliest Governor's Race In Ohio History: $40 Million Plus Likely On Kasich v. Strickland

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The Democrats expect to raise more than $20 million for Ted Strickland's reelection campaign. Republicans have been tossing around similar numbers for GOP challenger John Kasich. Strickland's 2010 campaign manager Aaron Pickrell, who was just on the phone with The Daily Bellwether, confirmed that he's sure the contest will set spending records: "This is going to be an extraordinarily expensive campaign." He said the governor's reelection budget will be at least $3 million more than the $17 million spent defeating Cincinnati's Ken Blackwell four years ago. Pickrell said the money is necessary for television ads, new media and to "build a massive field operation" that can send volunteers door-to-door spreading the governor's message.

While early polls show Strickland trailing Kasich, Pickrell said the data is not discouraging. He said the economy trumps all issues. "People are angry, they're blaming anyone that is currently in power." But the data also shows, "People trust the governor and people like him. Those are things you cannot buy." And, "There is no question this is going to be a tough political year." Pickrell sees early polling suggesting the race -- at this point in time -- is Strickland facing the economy, not Strickland facing Kasich. That will change over time as voters begin to focus on Kasich, a former congressman and Lehman Bros. investment banker who is largely unknown statewide.