Ohio Presidential Primary Warning: Don't Believe Everything On The Blogs

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Somebody posted a detailed statewide analysis of Ohio's congressional districts on Buckeye State Blog. It purports to explain how each district should be expected to vote in the March 4 presidential primary. But what appears expert or credible can be quite deceiving. The author reports that 40% of the residents in OH-02 -- a congressional district with some of the state's poorest counties -- are college graduates. That 40% number is a grossly exaggerated figure, a pie-in-the-statistic that makes the depressed Ohio River Valley into Ohio's super-educated valley. The truth: Most counties in OH-02 have fewer college grads than Ohio as a whole, a state where just 13.7% of the adult population holds a bachelor's degree.

Here's what was reported:

"CD 2 -- (Cincinnati suburbs and rural Ohio River counties) Represented by Mean Jean Schmidt, this district has a low African American population, although almost 40% of district residents have a BA or a graduate degree. Hillary should win this district, but not by a large margin, resulting in another 2-2 split."

There are five Appalachian counties and portions of two others in OH-02. In the five Appalachian counties, there are more high school dropouts than grads. And Hamilton and Warren counties -- Cincinnati and its fastest growing suburb -- don't come anywhere close to the 40% college grad level. The latest demographic data available from the Ohio Department of Development for the OH-02 counties shows:

1. Adams County -- 31.4% of adult residents did not finish high school; 4.4% have bachelor degrees.
2. Brown County -- 25.2% no h.s.; 5.5% have BA/BS.
3. Clermont County -- 18% no h.s.; 14% have BA/BS.
4. Hamilton County (Cincinnati) -- 17.3% no h.s.; 18.5% have BA/BS.
5. Pike County -- 29.9% no h.s.; 6.3% have BA/BS.
6. Scioto County -- 25.9% no h.s.; 6.4% have BA/BS.
7. Warren County -- 13.8% no h.s.; 19.3% BA/BS.