By froggermarch
The conventional wisdom seems to be going into Super Tuesday (this is being written about an hour before the first polls close) that by the evening of February 6 the Republicans will have a prohibitive frontrunner and the Democrats will not.
Here’s betting such wisdom is, well, not.
It’s not just the polls are heading Obama’s way. It’s that the polls are, by today’s standards, old. They were taken days ago. In many cases, when Edwards was still in the race. When Maria Shriver was an uncommitted Kennedy. When Bill Clinton was under wraps. “The ground is on fire,” was the way that one Obama supporter put it. The ground is on fire. Obama will win and win big, it says here. I think there is a reasonable chance he will carry 15-20 states tonight. Clinton will carry New York , Tennessee , Delaware and Arizona. Maybe.
Don’t tell me about New Hampshire . The polls were wrong, went the CW. The crowds at the Obama rallies didn’t turn out to actually vote, it continued. Hillary found her voice after all. (Omen alert: she lost it today.)
New Hampshire was a small, contrary, white state where Obama made a number of tactical blunders (and still, by the way, got the votes the polls predicted; Hillary’s win came at Edwards’s expense, it seems now).
He predicted victory. He played it safe, eschewing the morning talk shows and leaving the last-minute deciders to what was perceived as a wounded Hillary Clinton. She won. He went to school.
What about Nevada? Didn’t she get the majority of votes there? The fact is, that we don’t really know. It was a caucus, after all, so very often the votes that were attributed to Clinton and Obama started out as votes for Edwards, or others. Others left before they even made a second choice. Do you really think Edwards got only 4 per cent of the votes there? What we do know is that Obama edged Clinton out in the Nevada delegate count. And went on to lap her in South Carolina . That felt like today. Florida? Don’t even.
No. What we have here is a genuine phenomenon. Oh, there will still be lots of votes left to count after tomorrow; lots of delegates to choose. But the die is cast. Barack Obama will be the nominee.
A word about the Republicans. Probably McCain is the nominee, as expected. But don’t count out my man Huckabee (he is “my man” in the sense that I long ago thought he would emerge from the pack to win Iowa —which he did and magically disappeared from the planet.)
Conventional wisdom: Huckabee he wants to be Vice-President and thinks that sticking around is his best way to achieve that goal. Froggermarch wisdom: He wants to be President and thinks that a brokered convention where he commands more than a couple of delegates and is everyone’s second choice is his best chance. Or McCain gets very sick after Romney drops out. Yeah, that. You read it here first.
Showing posts with label FroggerMarch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FroggerMarch. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Friday, February 01, 2008
An Endorsement That Matters
By froggermarch
I was sticking with John Edwards as long as I could. I’ve been angry with what the Republican Party has done to our nation and I didn’t really feel like making nice with everybody, or of backing a senator who had not, at the least, completely renounced a vote to authorize George W. Bush to use military force in Iraq. I also felt that Edwards had the best chance to ensure the Democrats recaptured the White House, with a real chance at making inroads in the Deep South that could be significant in the long term.
Then came the endorsements, and I started to waver. Surprisingly, to me given that I have yet to watch a complete edition of her show, Oprah first got my attention. She seemed to both capture and catapult the inspirational quality of a man we were all inspired by at the Democratic Convention. Kerry jumped in, but that didn’t mean a whole lot to me. As I received his fundraising letter on Obama’s behalf, however (made ironically possible by my donation to the Kerry/Edwards campaign) I realized the significance that such a mailing list would have on the financial viability of the Obama campaign. I began to cry “Uncle” at the same time Caroline followed the word with “Teddy” as she invoked her father’s memory and spirit. The only record album I can recall my mother ever buying was a commemorative edition of JFK’s speeches in 1963, and the words of the Kennedy’s and the candidate they endorsed reminded me of how those words—and more importantly the ideas behind them—had shaped my family’s and my country’s path.
But, in the wake of the Edwards withdrawal the endorsement that has put me over the top and cleanly into the Obama camp was this one from Ann Coulter.
I was sticking with John Edwards as long as I could. I’ve been angry with what the Republican Party has done to our nation and I didn’t really feel like making nice with everybody, or of backing a senator who had not, at the least, completely renounced a vote to authorize George W. Bush to use military force in Iraq. I also felt that Edwards had the best chance to ensure the Democrats recaptured the White House, with a real chance at making inroads in the Deep South that could be significant in the long term.
Then came the endorsements, and I started to waver. Surprisingly, to me given that I have yet to watch a complete edition of her show, Oprah first got my attention. She seemed to both capture and catapult the inspirational quality of a man we were all inspired by at the Democratic Convention. Kerry jumped in, but that didn’t mean a whole lot to me. As I received his fundraising letter on Obama’s behalf, however (made ironically possible by my donation to the Kerry/Edwards campaign) I realized the significance that such a mailing list would have on the financial viability of the Obama campaign. I began to cry “Uncle” at the same time Caroline followed the word with “Teddy” as she invoked her father’s memory and spirit. The only record album I can recall my mother ever buying was a commemorative edition of JFK’s speeches in 1963, and the words of the Kennedy’s and the candidate they endorsed reminded me of how those words—and more importantly the ideas behind them—had shaped my family’s and my country’s path.
But, in the wake of the Edwards withdrawal the endorsement that has put me over the top and cleanly into the Obama camp was this one from Ann Coulter.
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Froggermarch Reminds Dems: 'It Takes A Clinton' For Trench Warfare With GOP
Hillary's Last, Best Chance
By froggermarch
The best use of staff and candidate time today for Hillary Clinton will be in the formation of a carefully-crafted concession speech for tonight. It should be gracious and complimentary of her two worthy rivals, not claiming victory in any form, but should be resolute to continue to fight for core Democratic principles and the traditional constituents of that great party.
In other words, pander.
The new age appeal of Barack Obama, and the populist message of John Edwards together gives the senator from New York a tremendous opening. By being the candidates of a new politics welcome to independents as well as younger voters, they have, by definition, turned their barackas (sorry) on the special or even not-so-special interests that still make up a large portion of the core of the Democratic Party. John Edwards has said he will not accept lobbyist money, not even from trial lawyers or unions; Hillary should assure them they will get the first seat at the table; that she will fight against "tort reform" and for higher wages and better working conditions for working people. She should talk Social Security to older voters, student aid to students, equal pay to women and sensible immigration reform to Latinos.
Oh, but she has already done that, you say. Really? This month? I haven't heard it, and I've been listening. Instead she has tried to out-Obama Barack, out-smile John Edwards and ride their respective messages as if it were she who is the rightful vessel of their appeal. She is not and never was. But as we are hearing ad nauseum in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama's phenomenal performance has been largely attributable to registered independents. The degree and influence of participation of that voting group will wane in larger caucuses and primaries as the influence of core party members waxes over the next two weeks. And those core Democrats hear the message of love, peace and understanding coming from the Obama campaign a little differently, I'm guessing, than it is currently being heard by the independent minded states of Iowa and New Hampshire. They hear it more as the foundation for compromise with a party that has screwed the country over royally. They don't want compromise. They want war. And the spoils of war. For that job, it takes a Clinton.
It may well be too late to attempt such an admittedly unattractive re-casting of her campaign, and I doubt she will go that direction but in my opinion it is her last best, shot Hillary gambled and to this point has lost, by using a general election strategy in Democratic primaries. I thought it was a flawed strategy from the beginning. Ironically, the Obama phenomenon may give her a chance to move to the traditional Democratic base that still loves Bill Clinton and fondly remembers peace, prosperity and the other "P", power.
By froggermarch
The best use of staff and candidate time today for Hillary Clinton will be in the formation of a carefully-crafted concession speech for tonight. It should be gracious and complimentary of her two worthy rivals, not claiming victory in any form, but should be resolute to continue to fight for core Democratic principles and the traditional constituents of that great party.
In other words, pander.
The new age appeal of Barack Obama, and the populist message of John Edwards together gives the senator from New York a tremendous opening. By being the candidates of a new politics welcome to independents as well as younger voters, they have, by definition, turned their barackas (sorry) on the special or even not-so-special interests that still make up a large portion of the core of the Democratic Party. John Edwards has said he will not accept lobbyist money, not even from trial lawyers or unions; Hillary should assure them they will get the first seat at the table; that she will fight against "tort reform" and for higher wages and better working conditions for working people. She should talk Social Security to older voters, student aid to students, equal pay to women and sensible immigration reform to Latinos.
Oh, but she has already done that, you say. Really? This month? I haven't heard it, and I've been listening. Instead she has tried to out-Obama Barack, out-smile John Edwards and ride their respective messages as if it were she who is the rightful vessel of their appeal. She is not and never was. But as we are hearing ad nauseum in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama's phenomenal performance has been largely attributable to registered independents. The degree and influence of participation of that voting group will wane in larger caucuses and primaries as the influence of core party members waxes over the next two weeks. And those core Democrats hear the message of love, peace and understanding coming from the Obama campaign a little differently, I'm guessing, than it is currently being heard by the independent minded states of Iowa and New Hampshire. They hear it more as the foundation for compromise with a party that has screwed the country over royally. They don't want compromise. They want war. And the spoils of war. For that job, it takes a Clinton.
It may well be too late to attempt such an admittedly unattractive re-casting of her campaign, and I doubt she will go that direction but in my opinion it is her last best, shot Hillary gambled and to this point has lost, by using a general election strategy in Democratic primaries. I thought it was a flawed strategy from the beginning. Ironically, the Obama phenomenon may give her a chance to move to the traditional Democratic base that still loves Bill Clinton and fondly remembers peace, prosperity and the other "P", power.
Monday, January 07, 2008
Froggermarch To New Hampshire Dems: Cross Lines And Back A GOP Loser
Memo To New Hampshire Democrats:
Vote Romney
By froggermarch
Fellow Dems, it is time to come to the aid of the Mittster. And no, it’s not that I just love today’s “new-look” Mitt— the tie-less one with three hairs carefully tousled. That just makes him look like page 14, rather than page 4, of the Brooks Brothers’ catalogue. No, it’s because he’s lagging, he’s wounded and he needs us. That’s right, us.
And much more importantly, we need him.
Before you go thinking your favorite amphibian here has gone off the lily pad, consider: Any of the Democratic contenders can probably beat any of he current Republican contenders. With one exception: John McCain. McCain will offer a foreign policy advantage over Obama and Edwards and a personality advantage over Clinton. If McCain wins the New Hampshire primary he will quickly become the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Within days of that victory, Fred Thompson will abandon his run and throw his support to McCain (whom he campaigned for in 2000). Romney will have lost two straight and be abandoned by the pro-business Republicans to support the lesser of two evils in their opinion, McCain over Huckabee. McCain then goes on to win in South Carolina and Nevada and makes the Guliani strategy of waiting until February 5 seem to be even more quixotic than it does today.
But if Romney wins, McCain is in trouble. He will have failed to win either of the first two contests and history says that would be very hard to overcome. Romney would have momentum, attention and the wind behind his boneless back. He wins Michigan, South Carolina goes back to the Huckleberry and Fred Thompson hangs around to sleep another day. Guliani becomes just viable enough to keep this party going for months to come. The GOP turns to GOOP, forced to settle their grievances in a caged-match on the convention floor. Since Romney has the most money and fewest principles, it says here he emerges from the fray.
I know you may want to get in on Barackomania. You’ll have your chance in the general election, when it really counts. Edwards will finish third in New Hampshire no matter how many votes are cast, so no loss there. And if you like Hillary, and think this is the time to make a stand to keep her in the race, let it go. That dirge played Thursday night at the southwest corner of a weathered gym in a town named Waterloo. Besides, the ultimate victory here needs to be in the general election, and at this point nothing would threaten the opportunity to win back the White House than the anti-Hillary fervor that would rally the Republicans behind McCain against her.
So, down your Maalox and step up to the Republican ballot. And take one for the cause, by voting for (gulp) Mitt Romney. 'Tis a far, far better vote you cast than you have ever cast before.
Vote Romney
By froggermarch
Fellow Dems, it is time to come to the aid of the Mittster. And no, it’s not that I just love today’s “new-look” Mitt— the tie-less one with three hairs carefully tousled. That just makes him look like page 14, rather than page 4, of the Brooks Brothers’ catalogue. No, it’s because he’s lagging, he’s wounded and he needs us. That’s right, us.
And much more importantly, we need him.
Before you go thinking your favorite amphibian here has gone off the lily pad, consider: Any of the Democratic contenders can probably beat any of he current Republican contenders. With one exception: John McCain. McCain will offer a foreign policy advantage over Obama and Edwards and a personality advantage over Clinton. If McCain wins the New Hampshire primary he will quickly become the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Within days of that victory, Fred Thompson will abandon his run and throw his support to McCain (whom he campaigned for in 2000). Romney will have lost two straight and be abandoned by the pro-business Republicans to support the lesser of two evils in their opinion, McCain over Huckabee. McCain then goes on to win in South Carolina and Nevada and makes the Guliani strategy of waiting until February 5 seem to be even more quixotic than it does today.
But if Romney wins, McCain is in trouble. He will have failed to win either of the first two contests and history says that would be very hard to overcome. Romney would have momentum, attention and the wind behind his boneless back. He wins Michigan, South Carolina goes back to the Huckleberry and Fred Thompson hangs around to sleep another day. Guliani becomes just viable enough to keep this party going for months to come. The GOP turns to GOOP, forced to settle their grievances in a caged-match on the convention floor. Since Romney has the most money and fewest principles, it says here he emerges from the fray.
I know you may want to get in on Barackomania. You’ll have your chance in the general election, when it really counts. Edwards will finish third in New Hampshire no matter how many votes are cast, so no loss there. And if you like Hillary, and think this is the time to make a stand to keep her in the race, let it go. That dirge played Thursday night at the southwest corner of a weathered gym in a town named Waterloo. Besides, the ultimate victory here needs to be in the general election, and at this point nothing would threaten the opportunity to win back the White House than the anti-Hillary fervor that would rally the Republicans behind McCain against her.
So, down your Maalox and step up to the Republican ballot. And take one for the cause, by voting for (gulp) Mitt Romney. 'Tis a far, far better vote you cast than you have ever cast before.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Where's There's A Will, There's An Offbase Presidential Analysis
Comparing 2008 to 1968
By froggermarch
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- I like George Will. Well, at least I respect him, even if I disagree with his market-based approach to humanity. He is consistent and intelligent and he often provides interesting statistical or historical crumbs of admittedly tinted insight or information along the way. One such was on last week’s This Week With Someone Not Named David Brinkley. He gave me what the briefly legendary Arsenio Hall would call “something that makes you go ‘hmmm.’”
Barack Obama, he argued, reminded one of Eugene McCarthy in 1968 --the non-traditional, erudite challenger to the party’s established candidate Hubert Humphrey, whom he then likened to Hillary Clinton. He then finished the triangular simile by comparing John Edwards to Bobby Kennedy. The hair, I guess. “And as we all know,” Will concluded, “Humphrey won.”
I like history, too. I studied it once, and it offers a lot. But on this occasion—and by that I mean not only Will’s particular reference, but also the broader lessons of history relative to this year’s primaries—there is no proper comparison. For one thing, Kennedy was assassinated. It was in all the papers, so I’m surprised George missed that historical nuance. Nobody knows for sure, but fairly conventional wisdom is that Kennedy might well have been the nominee, having eclipsed McCarthy as the alternative candidate to Humphrey. And not to belabor 1968, but Humphrey’s party owned the war issue. And the Presidential loyalty trap now ensnaring the Republicans (save for Ron Paul) flummoxed the Democratic establishment. A vote against Humphrey was a vote against the Democratic administration. Tough to do, when your party had been the one in power. Oh, and McCarthy didn’t have Obama’s funding; Kennedy got a late start, where Edwards began his candidacy in the Pleistocene Era and Humphrey, unlike Hillary, was a great orator. And he wasn’t a woman. And McCarthy wasn’t African-American.
Which brings me to the bigger point when it comes to lessons for this year’s Democratic primaries: History is useless.
The rules have changed. While the Republicans still have winner-take-all-primaries, the Dems choose delegated proportionately, though only if you get at least 15 per cent of the vote. (We’ll discuss the ramifications of those elements in a separate post.) The amount and flow of money is completely different. The Democrats are the ones with WAY more money than the Republicans (OK, I’ll wait while you go back and read that again a few times) and it’s coming in from a place called the Internet that wasn’t even realized until the 2004 elections. And way back then, YouTube wasn’t around. The Difference-Making Voter in 2004 may have been the evangelical Christian motivated by the strained fear of homosexual nuptials. In 2008, it may be the hormonal teenager motivated by the strained shirt of Obama Girl.
Generals too often fight the last war and politicians too often contest the last election. Over the next 364 days we will see a race with a former first lady, a Mormon, a TV star, a Barack Obama, a socially-moderate Republican frontrunner ,and an evangelical rock musician among others continue to mix it up in an election that features no Presidential or Vice-Presidential incumbent from either party. And that’s not counting what might happen when the billionaire independent, the Green Party candidate, the Focus on the Family candidate or the Nobel Peace Prize winner jumps in.
Buckle your seat belts. We’re in for a new and bumpy ride.
By froggermarch
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- I like George Will. Well, at least I respect him, even if I disagree with his market-based approach to humanity. He is consistent and intelligent and he often provides interesting statistical or historical crumbs of admittedly tinted insight or information along the way. One such was on last week’s This Week With Someone Not Named David Brinkley. He gave me what the briefly legendary Arsenio Hall would call “something that makes you go ‘hmmm.’”
Barack Obama, he argued, reminded one of Eugene McCarthy in 1968 --the non-traditional, erudite challenger to the party’s established candidate Hubert Humphrey, whom he then likened to Hillary Clinton. He then finished the triangular simile by comparing John Edwards to Bobby Kennedy. The hair, I guess. “And as we all know,” Will concluded, “Humphrey won.”
I like history, too. I studied it once, and it offers a lot. But on this occasion—and by that I mean not only Will’s particular reference, but also the broader lessons of history relative to this year’s primaries—there is no proper comparison. For one thing, Kennedy was assassinated. It was in all the papers, so I’m surprised George missed that historical nuance. Nobody knows for sure, but fairly conventional wisdom is that Kennedy might well have been the nominee, having eclipsed McCarthy as the alternative candidate to Humphrey. And not to belabor 1968, but Humphrey’s party owned the war issue. And the Presidential loyalty trap now ensnaring the Republicans (save for Ron Paul) flummoxed the Democratic establishment. A vote against Humphrey was a vote against the Democratic administration. Tough to do, when your party had been the one in power. Oh, and McCarthy didn’t have Obama’s funding; Kennedy got a late start, where Edwards began his candidacy in the Pleistocene Era and Humphrey, unlike Hillary, was a great orator. And he wasn’t a woman. And McCarthy wasn’t African-American.
Which brings me to the bigger point when it comes to lessons for this year’s Democratic primaries: History is useless.
The rules have changed. While the Republicans still have winner-take-all-primaries, the Dems choose delegated proportionately, though only if you get at least 15 per cent of the vote. (We’ll discuss the ramifications of those elements in a separate post.) The amount and flow of money is completely different. The Democrats are the ones with WAY more money than the Republicans (OK, I’ll wait while you go back and read that again a few times) and it’s coming in from a place called the Internet that wasn’t even realized until the 2004 elections. And way back then, YouTube wasn’t around. The Difference-Making Voter in 2004 may have been the evangelical Christian motivated by the strained fear of homosexual nuptials. In 2008, it may be the hormonal teenager motivated by the strained shirt of Obama Girl.
Generals too often fight the last war and politicians too often contest the last election. Over the next 364 days we will see a race with a former first lady, a Mormon, a TV star, a Barack Obama, a socially-moderate Republican frontrunner ,and an evangelical rock musician among others continue to mix it up in an election that features no Presidential or Vice-Presidential incumbent from either party. And that’s not counting what might happen when the billionaire independent, the Green Party candidate, the Focus on the Family candidate or the Nobel Peace Prize winner jumps in.
Buckle your seat belts. We’re in for a new and bumpy ride.
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Froggermarch Finds A New Pond: His 'Survivor' Script Of 2008 Prexy Race Lands Here
[Note: Froggermarch has been a longtime diarist at firedoglake. He's going to start contributing to The Daily Bellwether on the 2008 presidential race. The frogger jumps in today.]
Previously, on Survivor...
Hillary faced the first real challenge to her leadership as her Dem tribe mates ganged up on her at the challenge. John E., Joe, Chris and even Barack became more vocal in their criticism, even if it meant a less unified front. Dennis went even further off the island--off the planet, in fact, when he claimed to have seen a UFO. As the Hawkeye and Granite competitions near, whispers of alliances are beginning and Bill R. seemed to signal a pact with Hillary that would take him to the final two.
Over at the Gooper camp, a clear leader to take on would be a welcome change of pace, as Mitch, John M, Rudy and Fred seem to handle the first place immunity idol like it was a liberal dose of...well, a liberal dose. Sam thought he had staked out a safe patch to the right flank, but when that was trampled by the rest of the tribe stepping all over themselves to claim the same patch, he became the first contestant to see his torch extinguished.
(For those of you who are not up to date on this year's presidential Survivors, --and I think that's everyone--here's a rundown of the archetypes):
Dos' Dems Tribe
Hillary: Survivor archetype--Navy SEAL...incredibly strong in the early "reward" challenges, but perhaps too strong. The obvious leaders tends not to do well down the stretch when they are perceived as a real threat. A good bet to be chosen as the Ultimate Survivor if she can make it to the final two, but she'll need to continue to win the reward challenges now and the immunity challenges: Granite, Hawkeye and Palmetto.
Barack: Survivor Archetype--Girl Scout Leader, Idealist...the audience is drawn to him becuause he won't let the game compromise his integrity. A contender in that harbor is safe, but that is not what contests are for. He'll be in the game for the long haul, but will need a stumble from the better players to make it to the final two.
John E.: Survivor archetype: Handsome Lawyer...combative, smooth, annnoying to some, but his family connection softens the edge and he works hard to be on the right (left) side of the right (correct) issues. Needs to clear the Hawkey challenge to be a serious contender for the final two spots, but if he does, could go all the way.
Bill: Survivor archetype: Outdoorsman, Alliance-Maker: The winner on paper, but Survivor doesn't happen on paper. Everyone tires of him reminding them how invaluable he is, but could be putting himself in position for the second prize. This guy might win a car along the way, but he has no plausible path to victory, save a meltdown among the other top contenders.
Joe: Survovor archetype--Old Dude. Great lines, real ideas, experienced in every area. Truth be told, would probably like to take the number two role Bill is cloying for. When he talks, people hear "blah, blah, blah."
Dennis: Survivor archtype--Crazy Guy Using Rock as Blackberry. ALWAYS tells the truth at tribal council interviews. Very often right on in his observations. Saw aliens.
Mike G: Survivor archtype--Hip Entertainer... never been camping. Happy to be here. Speaks truth, but in a language no one understands. He is happy he is in camp at all. The others don't seem so down with that.
The Gooper Tribe
Rudy: Survivor archetype--The Fisherman...thinks of himself as the camp "dad" who should advance because he takes care of people. Uses the wrong language for most of his tribemates. If the final two could both come from his Tribe, he'd probably win going away. Problem is, if he gets in the final two, it could become a final three.
John M: Survivor archetype--Former Survivor All-Star...Took a big gamble earaly on that he could go the farthest right on "The Art of War," but it backfired when his tribemates all joined him, and his "surge"suggestion took a disastrous turn. Trying to get back in on his charm, experience and the ineptness of his tribemates.
Mitt: Survivor Archetype--The Player...This guy knows the game backwards and forwards. His strategy is to say the right things to whomever is in front of him, win the early challenges and hope he's eliminated his competition before they know hat happend to them. No one wants to win more than him and he'll pay any price to get to the final two.
Fred: Survivor Archetype--The Slug...Everybody keeps waiting for him to do something to contribute, but he lies around camp all day, recites platitudes and asks for everyone to aplaud for him. Probably sounded good in the screening room, but he left all he had on the audition tape.
Tom: Survivor archetype--The Whiner. Has only one thing to say and thinks by repeating it a lot, he will be seen as a saviour. Not working. Not even a little.
Duncan: Survivor archetype--Crusty Pig Farmer...Scowls a lot. He should have been gone the first day, but has somehow managed to get through the first round of Tribal Councils. Nobody likes him; but what's worse, no one takes him seriously. Dead man walking.
Ron: Survivor archetype--The Spy...Sounds like he came over from the other camp. Notices that the tribal emporer is naked, but it's not a popular observation to make out loud in the Gooper camp. He'll get some surprise votes from Dos' Dems' side to stick around longer than most expect.
Mike H.: Survivor archetype--Under-the-Radar Overacheiver....the kind that does just well enough in just enough challenges, but doesn't scare anyone until it's too late. Manages alliances well and balances playing the game with maintaining as much integrity as possible. The kind that, more often than any other, makes it through to the final two.
(Now, back to the show)
Next time, on Survivor...
John E. and Barack consider an alliance to stop Hillary, while over at Gooper, nobody seems up to the Palmetto challenge. Mike finds what might be the hidden immunity Idol on the Exile Island known to the natives as Des Moines.
Sam: "Well I had a great time while I was here, but I guess I'm not in Kansas anymore. My fetus issues just became unbearable and I wasn't able to compete on them anymore."
-- froggermarch
Previously, on Survivor...
Hillary faced the first real challenge to her leadership as her Dem tribe mates ganged up on her at the challenge. John E., Joe, Chris and even Barack became more vocal in their criticism, even if it meant a less unified front. Dennis went even further off the island--off the planet, in fact, when he claimed to have seen a UFO. As the Hawkeye and Granite competitions near, whispers of alliances are beginning and Bill R. seemed to signal a pact with Hillary that would take him to the final two.
Over at the Gooper camp, a clear leader to take on would be a welcome change of pace, as Mitch, John M, Rudy and Fred seem to handle the first place immunity idol like it was a liberal dose of...well, a liberal dose. Sam thought he had staked out a safe patch to the right flank, but when that was trampled by the rest of the tribe stepping all over themselves to claim the same patch, he became the first contestant to see his torch extinguished.
(For those of you who are not up to date on this year's presidential Survivors, --and I think that's everyone--here's a rundown of the archetypes):
Dos' Dems Tribe
Hillary: Survivor archetype--Navy SEAL...incredibly strong in the early "reward" challenges, but perhaps too strong. The obvious leaders tends not to do well down the stretch when they are perceived as a real threat. A good bet to be chosen as the Ultimate Survivor if she can make it to the final two, but she'll need to continue to win the reward challenges now and the immunity challenges: Granite, Hawkeye and Palmetto.
Barack: Survivor Archetype--Girl Scout Leader, Idealist...the audience is drawn to him becuause he won't let the game compromise his integrity. A contender in that harbor is safe, but that is not what contests are for. He'll be in the game for the long haul, but will need a stumble from the better players to make it to the final two.
John E.: Survivor archetype: Handsome Lawyer...combative, smooth, annnoying to some, but his family connection softens the edge and he works hard to be on the right (left) side of the right (correct) issues. Needs to clear the Hawkey challenge to be a serious contender for the final two spots, but if he does, could go all the way.
Bill: Survivor archetype: Outdoorsman, Alliance-Maker: The winner on paper, but Survivor doesn't happen on paper. Everyone tires of him reminding them how invaluable he is, but could be putting himself in position for the second prize. This guy might win a car along the way, but he has no plausible path to victory, save a meltdown among the other top contenders.
Joe: Survovor archetype--Old Dude. Great lines, real ideas, experienced in every area. Truth be told, would probably like to take the number two role Bill is cloying for. When he talks, people hear "blah, blah, blah."
Dennis: Survivor archtype--Crazy Guy Using Rock as Blackberry. ALWAYS tells the truth at tribal council interviews. Very often right on in his observations. Saw aliens.
Mike G: Survivor archtype--Hip Entertainer... never been camping. Happy to be here. Speaks truth, but in a language no one understands. He is happy he is in camp at all. The others don't seem so down with that.
The Gooper Tribe
Rudy: Survivor archetype--The Fisherman...thinks of himself as the camp "dad" who should advance because he takes care of people. Uses the wrong language for most of his tribemates. If the final two could both come from his Tribe, he'd probably win going away. Problem is, if he gets in the final two, it could become a final three.
John M: Survivor archetype--Former Survivor All-Star...Took a big gamble earaly on that he could go the farthest right on "The Art of War," but it backfired when his tribemates all joined him, and his "surge"suggestion took a disastrous turn. Trying to get back in on his charm, experience and the ineptness of his tribemates.
Mitt: Survivor Archetype--The Player...This guy knows the game backwards and forwards. His strategy is to say the right things to whomever is in front of him, win the early challenges and hope he's eliminated his competition before they know hat happend to them. No one wants to win more than him and he'll pay any price to get to the final two.
Fred: Survivor Archetype--The Slug...Everybody keeps waiting for him to do something to contribute, but he lies around camp all day, recites platitudes and asks for everyone to aplaud for him. Probably sounded good in the screening room, but he left all he had on the audition tape.
Tom: Survivor archetype--The Whiner. Has only one thing to say and thinks by repeating it a lot, he will be seen as a saviour. Not working. Not even a little.
Duncan: Survivor archetype--Crusty Pig Farmer...Scowls a lot. He should have been gone the first day, but has somehow managed to get through the first round of Tribal Councils. Nobody likes him; but what's worse, no one takes him seriously. Dead man walking.
Ron: Survivor archetype--The Spy...Sounds like he came over from the other camp. Notices that the tribal emporer is naked, but it's not a popular observation to make out loud in the Gooper camp. He'll get some surprise votes from Dos' Dems' side to stick around longer than most expect.
Mike H.: Survivor archetype--Under-the-Radar Overacheiver....the kind that does just well enough in just enough challenges, but doesn't scare anyone until it's too late. Manages alliances well and balances playing the game with maintaining as much integrity as possible. The kind that, more often than any other, makes it through to the final two.
(Now, back to the show)
Next time, on Survivor...
John E. and Barack consider an alliance to stop Hillary, while over at Gooper, nobody seems up to the Palmetto challenge. Mike finds what might be the hidden immunity Idol on the Exile Island known to the natives as Des Moines.
Sam: "Well I had a great time while I was here, but I guess I'm not in Kansas anymore. My fetus issues just became unbearable and I wasn't able to compete on them anymore."
-- froggermarch
Sunday, February 25, 2007
FireDogLake's Frogger Predicts Hillary Is Going Nowhere
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Shared a meal and conversation with FroggerMarch, the diarist who writes at FireDogLake, the major national blog that is progressive in outlook and unflinching in its attitude that the Bush Administration outed the CIA's Valerie Plame for nefarious political purposes. FroggerMarch is an Ohioan who closely follows national politics, detests Dick Cheney and suspects the '08 presidential election is no gimme for the Democrats, especially if they nominate Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Frogger [an old acquaintance from a politically connected family] has been studying the GOP field closely -- no surprise, since he is famously interested in opposition research -- and thinks former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee could become a far more formidable foe by November 2008 than most Democrats (and Republicans) now realize. He said Huckabee headed the Southern Baptist Convention in that state and is within reach of becoming the darling of Republican social conservatives. He sees Arizona Sen. John McCain gaining steam in the months ahead and believes Rudy Giuliani is just too liberal for his party.
As for Hillary, FroggerMarch -- who lives in Cincinnati -- says she is at the top of her game now. "I think the fact that her name is Clinton helps her in the African American community and the polls. It skews her up. Bill Clinton is a god in the African American community. And I think that what she has going for her is that she is from New York, she is a senator, and her name is Clinton. Over time, she has nowhere to go but down. Her great weakness is that she has no great strength. The bad news about Hillary is that there is no good news. She doesn't have a great resume, other than being First Lady. She has the fact that she is a woman, but the newness will wear off. If her name wasn't Clinton, would anybody think she had a chance? I think the Democrats are eventually going to move past the name, and then what is there? It will be attrition."
FroggerMarch predicts former Sen. John Edwards or New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will move up in the polls later this year. "Those are the guys to watch over time. I'm not leaving out Sen. Obama, but I don't think his time has come. That needs to be watched, but I'm picking Edwards and Richardson, though Richardson may have a problem or two that hasn't come out yet. There are people who have questions. We'll see."
Who knows what the future holds? The national blogger's focus on Mike Huckabee was interesting because nobody in the Ohio 'sphere has paid much attention to the Baptist preacher turned pol. Perhaps he is worth watching.
FroggerMarch, who went to Miami University, said he picked that name because his mom loved the video game called Frogger. He's active in the business world and said he uses that moniker because his politics are too liberal for many corporate types. "I have to deal with a lot of Republicans," he said.
Frogger [an old acquaintance from a politically connected family] has been studying the GOP field closely -- no surprise, since he is famously interested in opposition research -- and thinks former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee could become a far more formidable foe by November 2008 than most Democrats (and Republicans) now realize. He said Huckabee headed the Southern Baptist Convention in that state and is within reach of becoming the darling of Republican social conservatives. He sees Arizona Sen. John McCain gaining steam in the months ahead and believes Rudy Giuliani is just too liberal for his party.
As for Hillary, FroggerMarch -- who lives in Cincinnati -- says she is at the top of her game now. "I think the fact that her name is Clinton helps her in the African American community and the polls. It skews her up. Bill Clinton is a god in the African American community. And I think that what she has going for her is that she is from New York, she is a senator, and her name is Clinton. Over time, she has nowhere to go but down. Her great weakness is that she has no great strength. The bad news about Hillary is that there is no good news. She doesn't have a great resume, other than being First Lady. She has the fact that she is a woman, but the newness will wear off. If her name wasn't Clinton, would anybody think she had a chance? I think the Democrats are eventually going to move past the name, and then what is there? It will be attrition."
FroggerMarch predicts former Sen. John Edwards or New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will move up in the polls later this year. "Those are the guys to watch over time. I'm not leaving out Sen. Obama, but I don't think his time has come. That needs to be watched, but I'm picking Edwards and Richardson, though Richardson may have a problem or two that hasn't come out yet. There are people who have questions. We'll see."
Who knows what the future holds? The national blogger's focus on Mike Huckabee was interesting because nobody in the Ohio 'sphere has paid much attention to the Baptist preacher turned pol. Perhaps he is worth watching.
FroggerMarch, who went to Miami University, said he picked that name because his mom loved the video game called Frogger. He's active in the business world and said he uses that moniker because his politics are too liberal for many corporate types. "I have to deal with a lot of Republicans," he said.
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