Cincinnati Dems: Schedule Ohio's First Democratic Straw Poll For September

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The presidential campaign season in political bellwether Ohio has not yet kicked into high gear like Iowa with its early caucuses and New Hampshire and South Carolina, with their early in the nation primaries. But the state is going to get a huge of amount of attention next month because the Hamilton County Democratic Party is sponsoring a presidential straw poll. It could offer some strong signals into which top tier contender is really up in this critical state -- Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama or former Sen. John Edwards.

Is it possible there could be a dark horse somewhere within the rest of the field? Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich?

The Hamilton County Dems are calling their Tuesday, Sept. 11 beauty contest the first Presidential Straw Poll sponsored in Ohio by an arm of the Demcratic Party. Balloting take place at the 20th Century, an old movie theater on the city's east side. The theater is in the Oakley neighborhood. Dems are also going to hear from ODP executive director Doug Kelly, and there is going to be a presentation on how to become a convention delegate.

But the big show, no doubt, will be the straw poll. Expect a standing room crowd.

Bottomline: No top tier candidate can afford to take a drubbing because the next-day headlines would be brutal. And might even be fatal. Who wants to be known as a loser in Ohio, the bellwether state, the center of the political universe when it comes to presidential elections?

[UPDATE: 6:50 PM edt -- Just dug into the Bellwether archives and saw that SW Ohioans can be pretty prescient straw pollers. In February, when the national pundits were saying John McCain was the GOP front runner, Hamilton County Republicans picked Rudy Giuliani as their favorite. They gave him a big win during an annual pancake breakfast where a poll is conducted during election years. McCain was crushed in the voting, and the loss now looks like a portent the Arizona senator's presidential campaign was not generating sparks.]

[UPDATE: 8:12 AM edt -- The Plain Dealer's Washington Bureau Chief Steve Koff picked up on the straw poll item and credits the The Bellwether. Ripples are starting spread. Watch to see if the political beauty contest in Cincy becomes one of the more important campaign agenda items in September. No doubt that FOX and CNN and MSNBC will all decide to give it coverage, probably live.]

Ohio GOP Straw Poll: Rudy Wins, McCain Pancakes

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has chosen former Ohio U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine to run his campaign in the Buckeye State, got clobbered in an annual straw poll that takes place during a Republican club pancake breakfast in suburban Cincinnati. Rudy Giuliani came in first, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney tied for second, and McCain finished third.

Giuliani received 33.75% of the votes cast at the event, which was like a caucus.

The vote was at the Northwest Hamilton County Republican Club, in an area of Ohio that is diehard GOP. Eighty Republicans took part in the poll and all were activists or party workers. They humbled McCain, who received 10 votes. On a cold, chilly day, the the gathering had the flavor of an Iowa caucus, though months before Iowa has its caucuses. McCain barely had more supporters than Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback -- so far a non-entity who doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Yet Brownback wound up breathing down McCain's neck.

McCain was in Cincinnati the day before the straw poll, but kept a low profile and met with GOP heavyweights to raise money. Then he skipped the Saturday Senate vote on Iraq, opening himself to heavy CRITICISM from national Democrats. McCain headed to Iowa, where he campaigned and said the Senate vote wasn't really important important. The Democrats issued this statement:

"It's not called the Bush-McCain Iraq war escalation plan for nothing,"said Democratic National Committee spokesman Luis Miranda. "McCain's refusal to show up for a vote on his own Iraq plan doesn't bode well for his presidential ambitions. While conservatives still don't trust him,McCain's decision to campaign instead of vote offers the American people an unflattering glimpse at an establishment candidate who will do anything to win the Republican primary."

Giuliani leads the GOP field in most national polls, though he's not in step with Ohio conservatives on gay rights or abortion. But he is viewed as a competent leader, and his name recognition is off the charts. Some dismiss the straw poll Saturday as merely a beauty contest, but the people dissing it are the ones who got ugly results. Hamilton County is the seat of social conservatism in Ohio -- the home of Phil Burress' Citizens for Community Values, the birthplace of National Right-to-Life, the home of former GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the state's most outspoken conservative leader. Giuliani had deep support in the activist crowd, and it's a sign he has political muscle in unexpected places, and it demonstrates McCain's weakness at the moment.

And plenty of Cincinnati Republicans heard that McCain skipped the Senate vote -- they wanted him there on the job. HERE's the Cincinnati Enquirer's version of the story written by a freelance reporter. The headline is what sticks out: "Giuliani Favorite of Local GOP Club."