Pollster Scott Rasmussen: Ohio Leaning Dem, Florida GOP And Missouri Is Toss-up

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Rasmussen Reports says its analysis of polling and other data from all 50 states shows the Democrats now with an advantage in the Electoral College. The polling firm contends crucial swing state Ohio is likely to leave the GOP column for the first time this century. Ohio has 20 electoral votes. Rasmussen rates six other Great Lakes states safely Democratic -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New York, Minnesota and Illinois. He says the only Republican bastion in the region this year is Indiana. Says the pollster:

"If the presidential election were held today, the Democratic candidate would be poised to win 284 Electoral Votes. That's 14 more that the minimum needed to capture the White House. The Republican candidate could expect to win 216 Electoral Votes while 38 more would be in the tossup category."

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the election. Of the states bordering Ohio, the pollster has Indiana and Kentucky rated "safely Republican." Rasmussen says West Virginia's five electoral are likely to go to the GOP. He made his assumptions based on either Obama or Hillary atop the Dem ticket versus Sen. John McCain, who is close to having his party's nomination sewn up.

Fresh Rasmussen Poll On Petraeus/Betray Us Ad: 58% of Americans Disapprove

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- A national telephone survey by pollster Scott Rasmussen shows that MoveOn.org's ad that slammed Gen. David E. Petraeus is not generating rave reviews from the American public. Only 23% say they approve. Even Americans who describe themselves as liberals "were evenly divided" Rasmussen reported today. The actual numbers show that the self-reported liberal approval rate was 45% versus 39% who disapproved.

The poll results are available here, and they show about half the country was following the story about the Petraeus/Betray Us ad closely in news reports.

Ohio's Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown voted against a Senate resolution last week that condemned the MoveOn ad. There is no polling available to show if Brown's vote cost him support, made him more popular, or had no impact at all. However, Rasussen's data is an indication that the stridency of the ad has made plenty of Americans uncomfortable. Inquiring minds are wondering: Does the national reaction turn into some kind of sense of disappointment in Brown's decision, a thorn that diminishes his standing with Ohioans? Republicans and conservatives are already filling the blogosphere with negative comments, talkshow lines are humming and letters are starting to turn up in the letters to the editors columns. Or is it just a lot of barking?

Still, Rasmussen said he found a sense that MoveOn may have hurt the anti-war cause.

"Forty-seven (47%) of all adults said that 'stunts like the MoveOne.org ad' hurt the cause they believe in. Only 12% believe they help the cause, while 17% say there is no impact. Twenty-f0ur percent (24%) are not sure. Again, political liberals are divided with 27% saying they help and 32% taking the opposite view. Fifty percent of moderates and 57% of conservatives say these sorts of events hurt the cause the group is trying to promote."

New Poll: Rush Limbaugh Is The Limburger Cheese Of Journalism

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Limburger cheese is so pungent and overpowering to the olfactory senses that there have long been gags and cartoons about the necessity for gas masks when a package is opened. And everybody knows the old nursery rhyme that ends when the ''cheese stands alone." Now talkmeister Rush Limbaugh -- a big cheese as a radio pundit -- stands alone as the most disliked person among the nation's most recognizable media and journalistic figures.

He owns the highest unfavorable rating in a field of 15 pundits and network broadcasters. Still, he manages to draw big audiences. There seems to be a disconnect -- he's unpopular yet Americans tune in.

In fact, broadcaster Limbaugh wins the the dislike derby by several wavelenghts. The caustic, conservative, pudgy, rich and extremely opinionated broadcaster has a "very unfavorable" number, 41%, that makes FOX News Channel's Bill O'Reilly, 23%, look like a saint. Ann Coulter's "very unfavorable" is 24% -- the conservative potty-mouth polemicist doesn't get anywhere near Big Cheese Limbaugh. Coulter raised a big stink by using an anti-gay slur against former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, a slur that has cost Coulter newspaper clients and made her a pariah in some rightwing circles. Looks like the stink couldn't overpower the limburger effect.

Limbaugh's overall unpopularity rating stands at 62%, which is a Mt. Everest peak that no one else among the media's Big Feet come anywhere near scaling.

The polling on Media Favorables/Unfavorables was conducted by Rasmussen Reports and released last week as part of its routine tracking of the 2008 U.S. presidential race. Rasmussen found that politicians as a rule were better liked than so-called journalists, and that Limbaugh stunk up the numbers.

"Ideology doesn't appear to be the determining factor when it comes to ratings for reporters. While (Katie) Couric tops the list of favorables, Bill O'Reilly is in second place at 44%. The highest unfavorables are earned by Rush Limbaugh (62%) and Larry King (46%)."

Couric also had the highest favorable (48%) but was way lower than former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who led all with a 70% rating. Limbaugh is heard by some 20 million Americans each weekday and the reach of his show is said to have saved AM radio. Limbaugh has a big Web site, too, that is HERE.

Rasmussen On Minnesota Senate: Dem Al Franken Has Real Shot

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Minnesota freshman U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman has less than 50% support, and that means the Republican has a serious challenge on his hands from Al Franken, the comedian-turned-Air America talkshow host who is after Coleman's job.

Coleman holds a 10-point lead over Franken, which is slender for an incumbent seeking reelection. Franken could face opposition in Minnesota's 2008 Democratic primary, but the poll shows he's already competitive against the Republican.

"Generally speaking, incumbents who poll below 50% are potentially vulnerable."

That news today from Rasmussen Reports, a polling organization that said Coleman was up 46% to 36% in its first survey of 500 likely Minnesota voters. Rasmussen conducted the telephone survey March 7 and released the results today. It was encouraging news for Franken, who left Air America last month but has wondered aloud if voters are ready for a comedian. He first came to wide public attention on Saturday Night Live in the show's early years.

Although voters under 30 prefer Franken over Coleman, Rasmussen said Franken has a high unfavorable rating, 46%, which exceeds Coleman's by four points. The results are HERE.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen said the Republican presidential race is all Rudy, Rudy, Rudy. Sen. John McCain (16%) is slumping but remains No. 2 to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (37%), who is padding his lead. Newt Gingrich (11%) is third and Mitt Romney (10%) is on his heels.

Rasmussen said Giuliani beats everyone on the Democratic side in head-to-head matchups. And the polling organization delivered a downbeat assessment about McCain.

"This is the lowest level of support so far for someone who not long ago was presumed to be the front runner for the nomination."

Latest Rasmussen Tracking Poll: Hillary's Lead Has Grown

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The Rasmussen Reports weekly tracking survey is out and shows Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up 4 points and now has the support of 38% of likely Democratic presidential primary voters. That 38% marks a new high for the New York senator, who has opened quite a lead over her rivals, much of it because she is a favorite of women and has remained popular among black voters.

Some pundits have taken shots at Sen. Clinton as staged and stiff. But she just keeps holding her pace and the lead.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama remained No. 2 at 26%. No change. And former North Carolina Sen. John Edward was at 15%, holding third and also no change. Rasmussen surveyed 783 Americans March 5-8, which was after conservative polemicist Ann Coulter denounced Edwards as a "faggot." Coulter drew severe criticism for the anti-gay slur, and Edwards attacked the remark as offensive. However, he did not move up any in the polls.

Blacks are a major voting bloc in Democratic primaries, but neither Clinton nor Obama has locked up a majority of the African-American vote, Rasmussen said.

"Obama and Clinton are essentially even about African-American voters. Clinton leads Obama by 15 percentage points among women and by 7 among men."

Rasmussen called New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson " a very distant fourth" with just 3% of the vote.

Pollster Rasmussen On '08 Race: More Know Anna Nicole's Name

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Stripper, celebrity and former Playboy Playmate of the Year Anna Nicole Smith is dead, but fame is following her to the grave. She has higher name recognition with the American public than most of the Democrats and Republicans running for president. Rasmussen Reports said 89% of Americans had heard of her before she died, and that 85% think the media has paid way too much attention to her untimely demise.

Rasmussen polled 1,000 adults by telephone Feb. 23-24 and said the centerfold sexpot who married an 89-year-old billionaire was not popular with the public. Still, nine of every 10 Americans knew who the 39-year-old celebrity was.

"That's an amazingly high level of name recognition, higher than just about all the Republican and Democratic candidates running for president," Rasmussen said. The poll is HERE. A January survey found the public did not like the antics of Hollywood celebs such as Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Rasmussen put Anna Nicole in the same class.

Perhaps graciously, the polling firm didn't say which presidential candidates trailed Anna Nicole.

Meanwhile, the pollster said Sen. Hillary Clinton increased her lead over Sen. Barack Obama after Al Gore was dropped from the weekly tracking survey. Rasmussen said 568 likely Democratic primary voters were phoned, and 37% picked Clinton, a 9% jump. Obama was at 28%, a 4 point increase and former Sen. John Edwards rose to 13%, a 2% lift.

Clinton's 37% was the highest percentage she has reached since Jan. 27 in a Rasmussen tracking poll. And with Gore out, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson moved into 4th place, the spot that the former vice president held. Richardson had 4% of the Democrats.

Rasmussen On GOP '08: Everbody Loves Rudy Today

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Most Republicans view Rudy Giuliani as "politically moderate," a label that is supposed to be the kiss of death in a GOP presidential primary. But Rasmussen is out with polling data this Valentine's Day showing hizzoner has widened his lead over Sen. John McCain, No. 2, and everybody else on the right. In fact, the pollster says America loves the mayor and if the election were held today he'd beat every Democratic contender as well.

Romance and Rudy are in the air. But how long might it last? Hearts break and sweeties do separate -- as the mayor knows all too well.

The February 5-8 national telephone survey of 507 likely Republican primary voters is the latest in Rasmussen's weekly tracking polls, and it gives the former New York mayor a five point jump . He holds a "solid, double digit lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination," Rasmussen reported. The numbers are Giuliani, 32%; McCain, 18%; Gingrich, 10%, and Romney, 8%. Republicans were surveyed before Romney announced this week, and before Giuliani made his speech to the California GOP state convention last Saturday that seemed to indicate he was officially a candidate. Or maybe the speech didn't imply that. Nobody is exactly sure, including the mayor.

Rasmussen Reports said perceptions of McCain have shifted among Democrats and independents, with more saying he is a conservative than in December. McCain is pushing for more troops in Iraq. Among Republicans, McCain is seen as a moderate. And so is Giuliani, an ideological tag that has not hurt him in his own party. In fact, Rasmussen said 66% of Republicans view hizzoner as an ideological moderate.

"These perceptions help explain why Giuliani consistently outperforms McCain in general election matchups against leading Democrats. Giuliani leads against every Democrat including Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama, former Senator John Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore," Rasmussen said.

The entire Rasmussen Reports is HERE.