CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Rasmussen today reports that Obama (46%) "for the first time ever" is leading Hillary (41%) in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. The details are here, and the change represents an abrupt shift that started as the week began. Rasmussen said nightly telephone surveys for the nationwide tracking poll first picked up the movement to Obama on Sunday:
"Prior to Obama's primary and caucus victories last Saturday, Clinton enjoyed a six percentage point lead."
Rasmussen said the data shows Clinton still maintains a very narrow edge among voters who consider themselves Democrats, but Obama has gained strength with independents likely to vote in a Democratic primary. Ohio has an open primary on March 4, meaning that unaffiliated voters can declare themselves Dems and cast ballots. This shift in the polling numbers -- a trend that seems to be gathering momentum nationally -- could be the first signal that Hillary's position in Ohio is deteriorating. She has been ahead in most statewide polls taken this year.
Showing posts with label Rasmussen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rasmussen. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Monday, August 06, 2007
If Congressional Elections Were Today: Democrats Have Double-Digit Edge
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- If Republicans are hoping for gains in Congress next year, poll results that show Americans more likely to vote for Democrats in House races can't be very heartening. And the numbers seem to be signalling that Ohio's John Boehner, the House Minority Leader from Butler County, might be stuck in his job playing second fiddle to Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen's company surveyed 800 likely voters across the nation by telephone last week, and they said by a 70-30 margin that the Democrats will hold the House next year. With 16 months to Election Day, the numbers indicate that Boehner's efforts so far haven't done much to turn the public against Pelosi's majority; Boehner's GOP just hasn't found a way to press the fickle button. And the polling helps Dems another way: They can raise money. In fact, if the numbers continue to hold it is possible the Dems could pick up a couple of House seats in Ohio -- Republican Jean Schmidt looks extremely vulnerable in Oh-02, and Deborah Pryce may be in the same boat. Both barely won in 2006. The Dems could have unprecedented money to pour into Ohio next year, a stash generated because they now hold the House and are starting to look ensconced.
Rasmussen reported:
"If the Congressional election were held today, 47% or American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district, while 37% would opt for the Republican."
And:
"Seventy percent of American voters now believe it is likely Democrats will retain control of Congress following the 2008 elections. That figure has changed little in recent months, and includes 40% who say it's Very Likely Pelosi's party will keep running Congress."
The polling showed few Americans were interested in third parties, which is bad news for the Greens and Libertarians who would like to get a toehold in Washington. Only 6% favor third-party candidates.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen's company surveyed 800 likely voters across the nation by telephone last week, and they said by a 70-30 margin that the Democrats will hold the House next year. With 16 months to Election Day, the numbers indicate that Boehner's efforts so far haven't done much to turn the public against Pelosi's majority; Boehner's GOP just hasn't found a way to press the fickle button. And the polling helps Dems another way: They can raise money. In fact, if the numbers continue to hold it is possible the Dems could pick up a couple of House seats in Ohio -- Republican Jean Schmidt looks extremely vulnerable in Oh-02, and Deborah Pryce may be in the same boat. Both barely won in 2006. The Dems could have unprecedented money to pour into Ohio next year, a stash generated because they now hold the House and are starting to look ensconced.
Rasmussen reported:
"If the Congressional election were held today, 47% or American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district, while 37% would opt for the Republican."
And:
"Seventy percent of American voters now believe it is likely Democrats will retain control of Congress following the 2008 elections. That figure has changed little in recent months, and includes 40% who say it's Very Likely Pelosi's party will keep running Congress."
The polling showed few Americans were interested in third parties, which is bad news for the Greens and Libertarians who would like to get a toehold in Washington. Only 6% favor third-party candidates.
Monday, March 26, 2007
New Rasmussen Poll: Cancer Report And Edwards Gets Bump In Poll
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Weekly presidental tracking poll numbers for former Sen. John Edwards reached their highest level this year after his wife Elizabeth disclosed that her breast cancer had returned. Although John Edwards remains in third place in the Democratic 2008 presidential field, 17% now say they support him, a six point increase from the week before.
Elizabeth Edwards' cancer is incurable. Rasmussen Reports conducted a telephone survey of 757 likely Democratic voters March 19-22. Edwards held a press conference in Chapel Hill, N.C. last week and said he would not suspend his presidential campaign despite her illness, which she said is treatable.
Meanwhile, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads with 37% support, and Sen. Barack Obama is second with 25% support. Obama fell five points. Rasmussen did not offer a reason for the change, but Obama's campaign had to distance itself from an attack ad on YouTUBE that satirized Clinton as a figure from 1984. Philip de Vellis, who worked for a firm doing consulting for Obama's campaign, claimed credit for the ad, which copied an Apple Computer ad used during the 1984 Super Bowl game. De Vellis said he acted alone and was not coordinating with the Illinois senator's campaign.
Rasmussen said Hillary's lead was holding.
"In fact, ever since Al Gore was dropped from the list of contenders, Clinton's support has remained remarkably steady, ranging from 34% to 38% over a five week period."
Elizabeth Edwards' cancer is incurable. Rasmussen Reports conducted a telephone survey of 757 likely Democratic voters March 19-22. Edwards held a press conference in Chapel Hill, N.C. last week and said he would not suspend his presidential campaign despite her illness, which she said is treatable.
Meanwhile, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads with 37% support, and Sen. Barack Obama is second with 25% support. Obama fell five points. Rasmussen did not offer a reason for the change, but Obama's campaign had to distance itself from an attack ad on YouTUBE that satirized Clinton as a figure from 1984. Philip de Vellis, who worked for a firm doing consulting for Obama's campaign, claimed credit for the ad, which copied an Apple Computer ad used during the 1984 Super Bowl game. De Vellis said he acted alone and was not coordinating with the Illinois senator's campaign.
Rasmussen said Hillary's lead was holding.
"In fact, ever since Al Gore was dropped from the list of contenders, Clinton's support has remained remarkably steady, ranging from 34% to 38% over a five week period."
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Rasmussen: Hillary Is Fading In February
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Sen. Hillary Clinton still leads the Democratic pack, but a new Rasmussen poll shows that Barack Obama and John Edwards have gained ground while her numbers have dropped. She fell 6 percentage points between Feb. 5 and Feb. 12, a slide that came as Obama prepared to enter the race and Clinton struggled to explain her vote on the war. Edwards had yet to endure the tiff about his bloggers -- whom he stuck with despite attacks they were profane.
[UPDATE 1 : This LINK describes the whole Edwards blogger flap and details the voluntary departure of Pandragon's Amanda Marcotte, who quit Monday.]
[UPDATE 2: Another blogger leaves Edwards. She writes of her decision to quit HERE. And Ohio's PsychoBillyDemocrat weighs in on the events.]
Rasmussen polled 435 likely Democratic primary voters Feb. 5-8. The latest GOP numbers will be out very shortly.
The Rasmussen data is HERE. It shows that Clinton has led every 2008 survey. Rasmussen noted that Obama probably enjoyed a modest bump in the poll because of runup to his Saturday speech entering the race, but there was no explanation offered about the Edwards move.
It seemed to me that the polling -- which is way, way early -- does hint that Clinton has electability issues. "While Clinton is the frontrunner within the party, Obama and Edwards do a bit better in general election match-ups against leading Republicans. Obama and Edwards both lead John McCain, R, while Clinton is essentially tied witht he Arizona senator. John Edwards is within two points of Rudy Giuliani, R, closer than any other Democrat."
Right now, Obama is getting the headlines, Clinton is getting the questions and Edwards is holding his pace for the marathon ahead. The North Carolina lawyer probably had the best polling of the bunch.
[UPDATE 1 : This LINK describes the whole Edwards blogger flap and details the voluntary departure of Pandragon's Amanda Marcotte, who quit Monday.]
[UPDATE 2: Another blogger leaves Edwards. She writes of her decision to quit HERE. And Ohio's PsychoBillyDemocrat weighs in on the events.]
Rasmussen polled 435 likely Democratic primary voters Feb. 5-8. The latest GOP numbers will be out very shortly.
The Rasmussen data is HERE. It shows that Clinton has led every 2008 survey. Rasmussen noted that Obama probably enjoyed a modest bump in the poll because of runup to his Saturday speech entering the race, but there was no explanation offered about the Edwards move.
It seemed to me that the polling -- which is way, way early -- does hint that Clinton has electability issues. "While Clinton is the frontrunner within the party, Obama and Edwards do a bit better in general election match-ups against leading Republicans. Obama and Edwards both lead John McCain, R, while Clinton is essentially tied witht he Arizona senator. John Edwards is within two points of Rudy Giuliani, R, closer than any other Democrat."
Right now, Obama is getting the headlines, Clinton is getting the questions and Edwards is holding his pace for the marathon ahead. The North Carolina lawyer probably had the best polling of the bunch.
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