Democratic Early Voters Surging On Cincinnati's West Side: Oh-01 Lifeline For Steve Driehaus vs. GOP's Chabot



Data Shows Dem Oh-01 Voting Surge

 CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The so-called "enthusiasm gap" that had Republicans fired up and voting in droves while Democrats sat on their keisters has vanished in the heaviest populated portion of Ohio's 1st Congressional District.  Early voting data shows 15,604 Democrats have voted in Oh-01, a number that has blown past  Republican turnout.  The surge took place late last week and over the weekend.  The GOP now trails with 14,424 early voters.  Republicans had been ahead in the Oh-01 matchup for more than a month.  Nearly 60% of the early votes cast in Hamilton County -- which includes Cincinnati -- are in Oh-01, which indicates massive public interest in the mid-term House contest.  Steve Driehaus, a freshman Democrat, faces Republican Steve Chabot, who held the seat for 14 years.  Both are from Cincinnati's West Side, and their rematch is clearly SW Ohio's most closely watched.  If Dems show up for Driehaus, their votes in statewide races will help the statewide ticket from Gov. Ted Strickland on down.  Nearly 12,000 independent votes have been cast in Oh-01 ahead of Election Day -- if they break nearly even Driehaus has a chance.  Driehaus has been written off by many political experts and commentators.  But the numbers suggest that Democratic voters are hanging with him.  Of the 26,000 Democratic early ballots issued in Hamilton County through Oct. 30, 18,566 were in Oh-01 and 84% have been returned.

Democrats have also been showing up in greater numbers at the Hamilton County Board of Elections to cast ballots ahead of the polls opening on Nov. 2.  Through Oct. 30, there were 3,674 Dem votes vs. 1,024 Republican.  [UPDATE: 1:24pm -- At noon today, the board of elections reported the latest count at that downtown polling site, 3,828 D, 1,059 R.  These are walk-in voters.  The tide is still surging Dem on election eve.]  Some suggest this is an indication that the Democrats' ground game has traction, and that the party's get-out-the-vote efforts are delivering results.

Still, polls (the few that have been disclosed) have shown Chabot leading, but the Republican has cautioned his supporters not to grow overconfident.  Last week on his campaign blog, Chabot said "there is nothing certain in life" but sounded like he was pretty sure he was going to flush Driehaus.  At the time, nobody was sure if the voting surge by Democrats would arrive.  Everyone was talking about the enthusiasm gap.  Here's Chabot:

"We're less than a week away from what could be one of the most momentous midterm elections in history.  All indications are that the American people are chomping at the bit to change the direction the Obama Administration and the Pelosi/Reid Congress have been taking this nation.  I believe we will win our race, and we'll once again be represented by someone who truly believes in less government, lower taxes and fiscal responsibility.  However, there's nothing certain in life, and ultimately the voters of the First Congressional District have the final say, and they will deliver their verdict . . ."

Hamilton County Democratic Sample Ballot Election 2010: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland Leads The Ticket

Click It and Print It

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Here's the Democratic Party line-up that is on the ballot Tuesday Nov. 2, 2010 in Hamilton County, Ohio.  Gov. Ted Strickland heads the list, Hamilton County Commissioner David Pepper is there on the card, and U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus. D-01, is the in the middle.  Scan down a bit and you will spot the names of Dusty Rhodes, who is running for reelection as County Auditor, and Jim Tarbell, who is seeking a seat on the Hamilton County Commission.  State Rep. Connie Pillich is after another two-year term in the Ohio House of Representatives.  Her opponent, Mike Wilson, is a founder of the Cincinnati Tea Party.

And don't forget to vote in the the judicial races, including Bill Mallory, Nadine Allen, Jody Luebbers and Steve Black.  You can print out this official Hamilton County sample ballot and take it to the polls operated by the Hamilton County Board of Elections.  The sample ballot is nice and blue.



Nat'l Right-to-Life Committee Attacks Ohio Law Punishing Political Smears: Riled By Driehaus Complaint Over OH-01 Billboards

Ohio Law Criminalizes Campain Lies

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The Ohio Elections Commission plans to hold an initial hearing Thursday (Oct. 14) on Rep. Steve Driehaus' complaint he's been falsely accused of voting for federally subsidized abortions.  But the National Right to Life Committee, a Washington-based group, says the panel has no business examining the truthfulness of political advertising, apparently even false advertising.  Driehaus, a freshman Democrat representing Ohio's 1st district on Cincinnati's west side, faces Steve Chabot, who a Republican who held the seat for 14 years.  Driehaus beat Chabot in 2008.  Driehaus filed a complaint with the Ohio Elections Commission contending that the Susan B. Anthony List -- a pro-life PAC in DC -- lied when it posted billboards in OH-01 claiming he "voted for tax-payer funded abortion." 

Under Ohio law, the commission determines if a statement is false and made recklessly during a campaign.  Its purpose is to try and keep things clean.  The Ohio Elections Commission has been around for nearly 40 years, and Republicans and Democrats alike have turned to it to combat smears.  If it finds problems, it can issue a reprimand or refer the matter for criminal prosecution.  A conviction carries possible penalties of up to 6 months in jail and a $5,000 fine.  The National Right to Life Committee filed affidavits with the Ohio Elections Commission that contend the messages on the anti-Driehaus billboards are truthful.  It cites provisions of the federal health care law enacted earlier this year.  Driehaus and others say there is nothing in that law permitting tax-payer funded abortions.  Driehaus is a pro-life Catholic Democrat who worked at Xavier University, a Jesuit school in Cincinnati.  Douglas Johnson, federal legislative director for the National Right to Life Committee, says the Ohio Elections Commission shouldn't be able to enforce an Ohio law "reminiscent of the methods used to chill criticism in certain countries run by presidents-for-life."  Here's the full text of the National Right to Life Committee's attack on the Ohio Elections Commission:

"NRLC's Johnson offered these additional comments on the subject: 'It is outrageous the Ohio law allows an incumbent politician, like Steve Driehaus, to haul citizens before an appointed government tribunal, under threat of potential criminal prosecution, for expressing an opinion about the public policy implications of a vote that he cast in Congress.   This is an incumbent-protection law that is intended to intimidate critics, reminiscent of the methods used to chill criticism in certain countries run by presidents-for-life.  In America, anyone should be free to express their views on the effects of the bills that Mr. Driehaus voted for, without fear of criminal prosecution or fines.  Mr. Driehaus enjoys full freedom to dispute his critics, with the voters as the ultimate judges about whose claims are most credible.  Mr. Driehaus apparently does not trust the voters to see things his way, and so he attempts to utilize criminal-law strong-arm tactics in a pathetic effort to intimidate and gag his critics.'"

Democratic National Committee Ups Radio Buy To $3 Million: African Americans In Driehaus' District, 4 Other States Targeted

Rev. Lowery Will Invoke Dr. King

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The DNC seems willing to spend in OH-01.  It is adding $1 million to a radio campaign aimed at black voters in Cincinnati and several other targeted cities across the nation.  In all, $3 million will be spent on spot featuring civil rights leader the Rev. Joseph Lowery, who was a close confidant of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.  The script:  "In 2008, we changed the guard.  This year we must guard the change.  This is Reverend Joseph Lowery asking you to stand on the shoulders of those who came before you."

Freshman U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus could be the beneficiary if Lowery's call to "guard the change" pulls African Americans to the polls.  Driehaus captured OH-01 for the Democrats by knocking of Steve Chabot, a Republican who held the seat for 14 years.  The congressional district covers Cincinnati's West Side and has a 30% black population.  When Obama ran in 2008, blacks voted in record numbers and Driehaus was swept into office.  If black voters don't show up this year, Driehaus could be toast.  Polls show him facing an uphill battle against Chabot.  On Monday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pulled the plug on $275,000 worth of Cincy TV time that it had reserved in OH-01.  The GOP then cancelled its time.  Many  viewed the DCCC's decision as a move to write off Driehaus and switch TV budget to more competitive districts.  But the DNC has stepped in to purchase more time for Lowery spots on urban radio, indicating that Cincinnati's OH-01 is still on the radar.   The Lowery spots will also help candidates up and down the Dem ticket.  African Americans are predominantly Democratic voters. 

OH-01 Early Voting: Current Stats Show GOP's Chabot Likely Gains From Absentee Surge

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The rematch between Democrat Steve Driehaus and Republican Steve Chabot for the OH-01 House seat on Cincinnati's west side appears to be drawing massive voter interest. Hamilton County Board of Elections data [see computer printout] through last weekend shows Republican voters have requested 3, 973 absentee ballots. That is nearly 25% more than Democrats. In the entire county, 18,544 absentee ballots have been pulled, with 12,293 in OH-01 and 6,251 in OH-02, where Republican Jean Schmidt is seeking re-election. Clearly, the Driehaus v. Chabot showdown in this year's heavyweight contest. A total 5,230 ballots in OH-01 have gone to voters identified as independents.

Early voting starts Sept. 28 in Ohio, and Chabot may turn out to be the beneficiary. Things look especially good for him in traditional Republican suburbs. Nearly 1,000 ballots have been requested Colerain Township -- 114 Dem; 382 GOP; 467 Indy. In Green Township, 1,980 ballots have been pulled -- 226 Dem; 888 GOP; 869 Indy. In the City of Cincinnati proper, which votes Democratic, more Dems have requested ballots than Republicans. But the city is geographically divided between OH-01 and OH-02, and there is no data showing who is the likely beneficiary. Driehaus probably.

Politics Does Make Strange Bedfellows: OH-01 GOP Steve Chabot Is Praising Nancy Pelosi

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Conservative Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot says he's full of admiration for Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who last week stood with the Dalai Lama and ripped the Chinese crackdown in Tibet. Chabot, OH-01, serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and issued a press release that says he "praised" Pelosi. He is not often prone to use language that speaks highly of Democrats, but Chabot says she was right to stand up for human rights.

"Freedom is a non-partisan matter. The Chinese government must respect the rights and human dignity of the Tibetan people."

Chabot, who represents Cincinnati's West Side, chairs the Congressional Taiwan Caucus. He has been a critics of China for years. He says China's actions in Tibet are "one more example of why the U.S. State Department should not have removed China from its list of the world's worst human rights offenders."

Earlier this month, China seems to have gotten a break on the annual report of human rights abuses in nation's across the world. There is widespread speculation that the Bush Administration eased up on its criticism of China because it didn't want to embarrass that nation ahead of this summer's Beijing Olympics.

3 Ohio Dems Accept No Tobacco Money: GOP's John Boehner Took $56,500

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Ohio's congressional Republicans have been packing in the cash from tobacco interests over the past decade. And the latest quarterly report from Tobacco Free Kids shows House Minority Leader John Boehner is the tobacco lobby's matchless friend. The Butler County rep took the most, $56,500, followed by OH-01 Republican Steve Chabot of Cincinnati, $24,500. Four Democrats haven't taken a cent -- Marcy Kaptur, OH-09; Dennis Kucinich, OH-10; Tim Ryan, OH-16. Sadly, first term Dem Zack Space, OH-18, turned up on the quarterly report for accepting $1,000.

Republican U.S. Sen. George Voinovich, a former governor and Cleveland mayor, is down for $7,000, the new report shows.

OH-01 GOP Steve Chabot: Newt's Coming To Root

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich -- who's been blasting Democrat Barack Obama for consorting with "hard-left intellectuals" -- is headed to Cincinnati. He's scheduled for a Wednesday fundraiser at the downtown Hyatt Regency, an event that includes a $1,000 per person VIP reception. Newt never jumped into the 2008 presidential contest, dashing the hopes of many conservatives. Instead, he's been dashing around the nation raising money for House GOP veterans like Steve Chabot who are facing tough 2008 contests. Details about the Chabot event are available on the Hamilton County Republican Party web site.

Gingrich has his own online operation, where he hawks everything from autographed copies of his books to faux Speaker's gavels engraved with his name. He also has this slogan posted: "Real Change Requires Real Change." Chabot is running for a sixth term against Democrat Steve Driehaus, a state legislator whose been raising serious cash in a district targeted by the DCCC's red-to-blue campaign. Thus, any mention of the need for real change probably won't come up during Gingrich's stumping for the OH-01 Republican incumbent. Newt has been delivering red meat lately -- bashing Obama's pastor, whom he says is not a racist but an avowed leftist.

"First of all, nothing Pastor Wright said was racist. Pastor Wright was saying what all hard-left intellectuals, whether they're white or black or brown or Asian or whatever their background -- if you go out and read what the hard left says to itself, it is a consistent diatribe against the United States. It consistently condemns the United States.

"There are people -- I talked to somebody tonight who pointed out 10 years ago, they went to a college commencement in the north at a liberal college where a substantial number of people would not stand up for the Pledge of Allegiance or for 'The Star Spangled Banner.' I mean, this is nothing new. The fact that it happens to be African-American is irrelevent. This is a normal diatribe, a normal assault on America and it's common for a substantial number of hard-left people."