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Thursday, August 23, 2007

New Iraq National Intelligence Estimate: Full Text Available Here

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- A new 10-page report by the National Intelligence Council foresees the prospects for a stable government in Iraq becoming "more precarious" over the next 6 to 12 months. The complete report is available at this government link (PDF). The report says there has been some improvement in the security situation, but that the Iraqi government remains a question.

"The IC assesses that the Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. Divisions between Maliki and the Sadrists have increased, and Shia factions have explored coalitions aimed at constraining Maliki.

"The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internal political debates, slowed national decision making, and increased Maliki's vulnerability to alternative coalitions."

Read the full report. Decide for yourself what it means. The White House view of the intelligence estimate is here. Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has also released a statement about the report. The White House sees progress; the Democrats don't agree.

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