CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Rasmussen Reports says its analysis of polling and other data from all 50 states shows the Democrats now with an advantage in the Electoral College. The polling firm contends crucial swing state Ohio is likely to leave the GOP column for the first time this century. Ohio has 20 electoral votes. Rasmussen rates six other Great Lakes states safely Democratic -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New York, Minnesota and Illinois. He says the only Republican bastion in the region this year is Indiana. Says the pollster:
"If the presidential election were held today, the Democratic candidate would be poised to win 284 Electoral Votes. That's 14 more that the minimum needed to capture the White House. The Republican candidate could expect to win 216 Electoral Votes while 38 more would be in the tossup category."
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the election. Of the states bordering Ohio, the pollster has Indiana and Kentucky rated "safely Republican." Rasmussen says West Virginia's five electoral are likely to go to the GOP. He made his assumptions based on either Obama or Hillary atop the Dem ticket versus Sen. John McCain, who is close to having his party's nomination sewn up.