CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Rasmussen today reports that Obama (46%) "for the first time ever" is leading Hillary (41%) in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. The details are here, and the change represents an abrupt shift that started as the week began. Rasmussen said nightly telephone surveys for the nationwide tracking poll first picked up the movement to Obama on Sunday:
"Prior to Obama's primary and caucus victories last Saturday, Clinton enjoyed a six percentage point lead."
Rasmussen said the data shows Clinton still maintains a very narrow edge among voters who consider themselves Democrats, but Obama has gained strength with independents likely to vote in a Democratic primary. Ohio has an open primary on March 4, meaning that unaffiliated voters can declare themselves Dems and cast ballots. This shift in the polling numbers -- a trend that seems to be gathering momentum nationally -- could be the first signal that Hillary's position in Ohio is deteriorating. She has been ahead in most statewide polls taken this year.
That's odd considering one day later, another poll indicates something totally different:
ReplyDeleteHillary Clinton enters the final three weeks before the Ohio primary with a lead of 21 percentage points over Barack Obama, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday morning.
http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/gov/2008/02/big-clinton-lead-in-ohio-quinnipiac.asp
and yeah, I know, it's The Enquirer, which is about as accurate as a calculator with no "2" key, but still. I hve trouble believing Hillary has a 21-point lead.