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Tuesday, October 12, 2010

National Weather Service Declares 'Severe' Drought In Cincinnati: Forecast Sees Scant Rainfall In Coming Months

Severe Drought Grips Butler And Hamilton Counties
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Abnormally dry.  That's what's ahead for Cincinnati and SW Ohio as a lingering drought is expected to worsen.  There will be rain showers off and on in the months ahead,  and autumn will bring cooler temps.  But the seasonal change won't break the dry spell that already has been officially declared a "severe drought" by the National Weather Service.  That news should have made headlines in the mainstream media, but it seems to have fallen through the cracks. Probably because the local TV crews and newspaper reporters were out chasing car wrecks.  Other chunks of Ohio are in what is considered a moderate drought.  The Daily Bellwether has the long term drought assessment from the federal government. It says the drought is likely to persist -- and worsen -- barring the arrival of a late season hurricane.  Nobody is mentioning climate change or global warming:

"Short and medium range forecasts and both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks indicate enhanced chances of below-median rainfall across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, and the seasonal outlook for October-December shows odds tilted in favor of below-median precipitation continuing across the lower Mississippi Valley. Abnormally drier conditions associated with La Nina are expected to extend eastward and southward during the upcoming three months as the probability of tropical cyclone activity decreases towards the end of the 2010 Hurricane Season. Therefore, drought persistence is maintained across the Southeast and Ohio Valley in areas that have slipped into at least moderate drought. A large area of drought development is forecast for most of the southeast not currently in moderate drought, including parts of western Arkansas, eastern Texas, the Tennessee Valley, and most of the immediate Gulf Coast and the Florida panhandle. The potential for tropical cyclone activity early in the seasonal period adds some uncertainty to the forecast, and if a late-season tropical cyclone were to affect parts of the southeast more significant improvement would be likely."

At The Daily Bellwether's home office, the yard and trees have been getting watered on most mornings since September.  Still, the grass is brown.  And the fate of the trees is a concern.  Will they come back strong next Spring?  There is more drought info here on the NOAA portal. Meteorologists determine the beginning of drought by calculating the degree of departure from the average of precipitation.  Usually it is done by comparing the current situation to historical averages base on a 30-year span -- often 75% of average precipitation over a specified time period.


  1. Here is the weather forecast from GFS

  2. What angers me greatly is that the meteorologists on local news shows seem incapable of ever saying anything except "We've got another gorgeous sunny day on tap!" What is there that is difficult to understand? It's a severe drought. Why not explain the causes to your audience?