OH-01: Flawed Cincinnati Enquirer Poll Undercounts African Americans To Give Steve Chabot Lead Over Dem Driehaus



Oho 1st District Demographic Data (2008)



CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Nearly a third of the residents in Ohio's 1st Congressional District are black.  Most are clustered in neighborhoods on Cincinnati's urban west side and older Hamilton County suburbs.  The Census Bureau estimates about 599,000 Ohioans live in OH-01, and says 180,000 are African American.  Because it covers Cincinnati's urban core, the 1st District has one of the highest concentration of black voters in the United States.  A demographic data fact sheet is easily accessible online from Ohio State University(pdf), which published the info for a previous election cycle.  The district's racial makeup is a widely known fact.

Yet the Cincinnati Enquirer massively headlined a poll Sunday that looks to have seriously under counted African American voters in the Gannett Co. Inc. newspaper's own backyard.  Its sample of 594 likely voters skewed 16% black.  That is a huge divergence from reality in OH-01 -- which is 30% African American.  The poll sample was 78% white, again a tilt away from reality on the ground.  The newspaper reported Republican Steve Chabot had a 12-point lead over U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus, the Dem elected in 2008.  It did not report that a prior poll showed Chabot with a 17-point lead.  The Enquirer is supporting Chabot.  And some are wondering:  Has the GOP bias that is openly practiced on its editorial page tiptoed into its news pages?  Driehaus beat Chabot in 2008 and is finishing his first term.  Their rematch is the most closely watched contest in SW Ohio.  Data in the SurveyUSA election poll tabs show that only 16% of those queried about the Driehaus-Chabot contest were black. SurveyUSA has made the full-text of its most recent Driehaus-Chabot poll available online. SurveyUSA contends black voters are not motivated to turn out this year, thus giving a huge edge to Chabot.  The poll was conducted last week.

But there is more to the story.  If an earlier SurveyUSA poll is analyzed -- which is something the Cincinnati Enquirer failed to do -- the numbers show Chabot is less popular today than he was before he started running to reclaim OH-01.  Ten months ago, a Driehaus-Chabot race went to Chabot with 56% of the vote -- Chabot had a 17-point margin.   In that SurveyUSA poll, which was conducted for the left-leaning political blog Firedog Lake, Chabot was a shoo-in. Those results are here. The poll noted the importance of the black vote, and 21% of those surveyed were African American. That is a much higher percentage than were contacted for the Cincinnati Enquirer poll, a poll that was so highly touted by the newspaper. Indeed, the earlier poll placed a prime emphasis on the black vote on OH-01:

"African Americans are estimated to be 21% of likely voters in this model. For every percentage point that black turnout is higher in 2010, the Democrat will outperform these results by approximately 1 percentage point. For every percentage point that black turnout is lower in 2010, the Democrat will under perform these results by approximately 1 percentage point."

That means OH-01's black voters are a critical component of the Driehaus electoral base. If they show up, he wins. It is a fact that the Cincinnati Enquirer seems to have ignored. There is a month to Election Day, and Driehaus is not toast. He's in a huge battle with Chabot, whose own popularity has faded by three points since January, according to SurveyUSA.

The polling firm does issue a caveat about its numbers.  It says that many people couldn't be contacted because they don't have home phones, and its numbers are accurate only to the degree they involve those with home phones.  In OH-01, many people use cellphones, it is a fact of life in urban America.   SurveyUSA noted:

"In theory, one cay say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error [+/- 4.1%], in one director or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy.  There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error:  These include the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined.  It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors."

UPDATE: 3:27 pm --  CityBeat's Kevin Osborne has a link to the Daily Bellwether's take on the Enquirer poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Osborne's headline agrees that the there was a flaw that undercounted African American voters in Cincinnati's West Side congressional district. I will also add that there are several black candidates who are running for various offices in Hamilton County that could gin up Democratic turnout in OH-01. Judge William Mallory is seeking election to the Ohio Court of Appeals, where he is the first African American to sit in the court's history. Judge Nadine Allen is running countywide, too, for a seat on the Common Pleas Court. And State Sen. Eric Kearney is running for reelection to a legislative post whose district boundaries overlap in part with OH-01. The presence of Mallory, Allen and Kearney on the ballot should help Driehaus by drawing black Democrats to the polls.

Ohio GOP Legislative Leaders: Shooting More Than The Breeze

COLUMBUS (TDB) -- Ohio's two highest-ranking GOP lawmakers have accepted invitations to an annual firearms outing later this month where --between the shots at clay pigeons -- pro-gun rights activists intend to lobby them for a measure expanding the state's legal definition of self-defense.

The Buckeye Firearms Association says the opportunity to shoot alongside Senate President Bill Harris and House Speaker John Husted on August 18 is a chance to meet the Republican leaders "and encourage them to make plans to put (Castle Doctrine) HB264/SB184 on a fast track."

The price is $75 and includes ammo, plus 50 targets. Shotguns and pistols will be on hand for those who don't bring their own weapons. This shooting fest is named for John Wayne, the movie actor, and is sponsored by the Delaware County Republican Party. Invitations say "Corporate Contributions are Welcome! Proceeds benefit DCRP 'Get Out The Vote' Efforts." All the firing will take place at the BlackWing Shooting Center, which looks like a superb complex to spend time squeezing off some rounds while supporting efforts to get more people to vote.

The Castle Doctrine movement is a National Rifle Association-backed effort that would broaden citizen rights to use force on suspected intruders. The NRA says:

"Castle Doctrine, in essence, simply places into law what is a fundamental right: self-defense. If a person is in a place he or she has a right to be -- in the front yard, on the road, working in their office, strolling in the park -- and is confronted by an armed predator, he or she can respond in force in defense of their lives (sic)."

At the moment, Ohio's right of self-defense is more narrowly drawn. Basically, someone has to be in mortal danger before they can shoot to kill. The NRA view of the expanded right of self defense is here.

Ohio AG Marc Dann's Outside Counsel: 3 GOPers Spotted On Panel To Map Reforms

COLUMBUS (TDB) -- Former Republican Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro got beat up in the newspapers over the hiring and fees outside lawyers received when they landed juicy state contracts to represent government agencies. His Democratic successor, Marc Dann, promised reform. Today, it looks like Dann has taken a serious step to clean up the contracting process by seeking advice from three notable Republicans, including a retired U.S. judge who was put on the federal bench by President Ronald Reagan.

Dann has appointed a six-member advisory panel to develop "procedures for selecting outside counsel in order to insure transparency, accountability, and objectivity in the selection process." Deals with outside lawyers traditionally have been a source of patronage and fundraising cash for the attorney general's office. The state contracts also have been a lucrative source of income for lawyers, with big fees paid by the taxpayers of Ohio.

Bios of the six advisers are online. Perhaps the most surprising person to turn up on the list is former U.S. District Judge Albert I. Krenzler, who served in Cleveland. The late and legendary Republican Gov. Jim Rhodes put Krenzler on the Cuyahoga County Court of Common Pleas in 1968. Reagan gave him the federal appointment in 1981. Krenzler turned 71 in 1992 and quit, saying he wanted to "do something else, whether it will be to relax and play golf or ride my motorcycle or go back to work."