Congressional Dems Reported Pulling Plug On Driehaus: $275,000 In OH-01 TV Time Said Canceled

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- If the respected Rothenberg Political Report has its facts right, then Steve Driehaus is losing access to the TV cash pipeline of his fellow House Democrats at a critical time. Driehaus is in a tough reelection race against Republican Steve Chabot, who lost the Cincinnati-area congressional seat two years ago. Chabot is looking for a comeback, and the Rothenberg piece says the House Dems -- who should be among Driehaus strongest allies -- have scrapped reserved time at channels 9 and 12 in the Cincinnati market:

"The DCCC has cancelled all of its reserved time at WKRC, the CBS affiliate in the market, for the weeks of October 19 and October 26. The Committee pulled over $200,000 worth of reserved time. The Committee also cancelled its time (over $75,000 worth of time) for those two weeks at WLWT, the NBC affiliate."

OH-01 covers the west side of Cincinnati and Hamilton County. It has a large African American population that usually votes Democratic. Driehaus rode the Obama wave into the House.  If Driehaus falls, and the seat switches back to the GOP, Chabot will vote to make John Boehner the House speaker.

UPDATE: 3:29 pm -- Plunderbund says the Driehaus campaign is still getting field work aid from the DCCC. The TV is gone. Driehaus folks say the reserved ad time on Cincy TV was let go because Chabot is not getting similar help from the House Republicans. Plunderbund suggests that both Chabot and Driehaus are being left to duke it out among themselves. I think this is bad news for Driehaus and a major miscalculation by House Democrats to slash TV spending for OH-01.  If Chabot isn't getting similar aid from the House (John Boehner) Republicans, then anything the Dems used for TV buys could help give Driehaus an upward bump with the electorate. Some $275,000 for TV ads would only strengthen his campaign, especially if Chabot could not match the TV spending. OH-01 is the most closely watched race among voters in SW Ohio. It is generating the highest interest and most sparks. A low turnout by Dems in the district could negatively impact  Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.  Today, the House Dems gave ammunition to the Boehnerites.

UPDATE 2: 4:03 pm -- NBC's Chuck Todd says Driehaus is the first congressional Democrat to lose DCCC support this year. He said the national House Dems view OH-01 as hopeless: "But with the DCCC now out, it's fair to say the national party doesn't have a lot of confidence in its chances of Driehaus holding. In other words, he's being written off. There are a number of Democratic-held House districts the DCCC will be making tough choices about in the next few days because if they want to pull BACK a buy they promised a specific TV station, there's no penalty if they do it in the next few days. It all depends on the market and the specific TV station's rules. In the case of the Cincinnati market, the DCCC had to make its final decision earlier this morning and that's how this news leaked out."

OH-01: Flawed Cincinnati Enquirer Poll Undercounts African Americans To Give Steve Chabot Lead Over Dem Driehaus



Oho 1st District Demographic Data (2008)



CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Nearly a third of the residents in Ohio's 1st Congressional District are black.  Most are clustered in neighborhoods on Cincinnati's urban west side and older Hamilton County suburbs.  The Census Bureau estimates about 599,000 Ohioans live in OH-01, and says 180,000 are African American.  Because it covers Cincinnati's urban core, the 1st District has one of the highest concentration of black voters in the United States.  A demographic data fact sheet is easily accessible online from Ohio State University(pdf), which published the info for a previous election cycle.  The district's racial makeup is a widely known fact.

Yet the Cincinnati Enquirer massively headlined a poll Sunday that looks to have seriously under counted African American voters in the Gannett Co. Inc. newspaper's own backyard.  Its sample of 594 likely voters skewed 16% black.  That is a huge divergence from reality in OH-01 -- which is 30% African American.  The poll sample was 78% white, again a tilt away from reality on the ground.  The newspaper reported Republican Steve Chabot had a 12-point lead over U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus, the Dem elected in 2008.  It did not report that a prior poll showed Chabot with a 17-point lead.  The Enquirer is supporting Chabot.  And some are wondering:  Has the GOP bias that is openly practiced on its editorial page tiptoed into its news pages?  Driehaus beat Chabot in 2008 and is finishing his first term.  Their rematch is the most closely watched contest in SW Ohio.  Data in the SurveyUSA election poll tabs show that only 16% of those queried about the Driehaus-Chabot contest were black. SurveyUSA has made the full-text of its most recent Driehaus-Chabot poll available online. SurveyUSA contends black voters are not motivated to turn out this year, thus giving a huge edge to Chabot.  The poll was conducted last week.

But there is more to the story.  If an earlier SurveyUSA poll is analyzed -- which is something the Cincinnati Enquirer failed to do -- the numbers show Chabot is less popular today than he was before he started running to reclaim OH-01.  Ten months ago, a Driehaus-Chabot race went to Chabot with 56% of the vote -- Chabot had a 17-point margin.   In that SurveyUSA poll, which was conducted for the left-leaning political blog Firedog Lake, Chabot was a shoo-in. Those results are here. The poll noted the importance of the black vote, and 21% of those surveyed were African American. That is a much higher percentage than were contacted for the Cincinnati Enquirer poll, a poll that was so highly touted by the newspaper. Indeed, the earlier poll placed a prime emphasis on the black vote on OH-01:

"African Americans are estimated to be 21% of likely voters in this model. For every percentage point that black turnout is higher in 2010, the Democrat will outperform these results by approximately 1 percentage point. For every percentage point that black turnout is lower in 2010, the Democrat will under perform these results by approximately 1 percentage point."

That means OH-01's black voters are a critical component of the Driehaus electoral base. If they show up, he wins. It is a fact that the Cincinnati Enquirer seems to have ignored. There is a month to Election Day, and Driehaus is not toast. He's in a huge battle with Chabot, whose own popularity has faded by three points since January, according to SurveyUSA.

The polling firm does issue a caveat about its numbers.  It says that many people couldn't be contacted because they don't have home phones, and its numbers are accurate only to the degree they involve those with home phones.  In OH-01, many people use cellphones, it is a fact of life in urban America.   SurveyUSA noted:

"In theory, one cay say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error [+/- 4.1%], in one director or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy.  There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error:  These include the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined.  It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors."

UPDATE: 3:27 pm --  CityBeat's Kevin Osborne has a link to the Daily Bellwether's take on the Enquirer poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Osborne's headline agrees that the there was a flaw that undercounted African American voters in Cincinnati's West Side congressional district. I will also add that there are several black candidates who are running for various offices in Hamilton County that could gin up Democratic turnout in OH-01. Judge William Mallory is seeking election to the Ohio Court of Appeals, where he is the first African American to sit in the court's history. Judge Nadine Allen is running countywide, too, for a seat on the Common Pleas Court. And State Sen. Eric Kearney is running for reelection to a legislative post whose district boundaries overlap in part with OH-01. The presence of Mallory, Allen and Kearney on the ballot should help Driehaus by drawing black Democrats to the polls.

OH-01 GOP Steve Chabot: Aide Used U.S. House E-Mail System To Recruit Campaign Workers

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Chris Good at the Capitol Hill newspaper The Hill breaks a story about Republicans abusing the U.S. House e-mail network for political purposes. They messaged congressional offices seeking campaign workers to make phone calls for the Republican National Committee: "If you have interns sitting around today, please send them over to the RNC . . . to phone bank for Oberweis." An aide to Steve Chabot, R-OH-O1, forwarded the e-mail on the House system.

The message was sent Friday to round-up some last-minute workers for Jim Oberweis, a Republican running for the Illinois seat vacated by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. Oberweis lost in a special election Saturday. Chabot's aide apparently violated House rules Friday when he forwarded the message on the House e-mail server. The Cincinnati congressman's spokesman, George Cecala, apologized for the incident:

"It's not our office policy to conduct business this way . . . We apologize if there was an appearance of impropriety, which was certainly not our office's intent. We apologize to the folks back home. We work hard to make sure that our staff is fully informed on the proper procedures."

The Hill reported that the e-mail's arrival from the RNC could run afoul of a House rule that says, "Official resources of the House must, as a general rule, be used for the performance of official business of the House, and hence those resources may not be used for campaign or political purposes."

OH-01 GOP Rep. Steve Chabot: With House Dems Censuring Musharraf

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Conservative Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot, who represents Cincinnati's west side, has joined 18 Democrats sponsoring a measure that strongly condemns Gen Pervez Musharraf's power grab in Pakistan. Chabot is the only Ohioan whose name is on the House resolution calling for restoration of constitutional government, the release of opposition leaders and a fresh review of all U.S. financial and military aid. Two other Republicans have signed on. The resolution stops short of saying Musharraf should step down, and notes that Pakistan has been a key ally in combating Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Still, it expresses deep disapproval of the move toward dictatorship.

Surprisingly, Chabot has not said much - if anything -- about the resolution condemning Musharraf, which was filed when the crisis began 10 days ago. There's been no press release, no discussion on his House Web site, and no media coverage. He is running for reelection next year, and his concern about human rights and the rule of law in Pakistan would seem to be an issue that would put him in good stead with voters. Perhaps he doesn't want to be seen as cozying up with Democrats. One of HR 810's co-sponsors is Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who has targeted Chabot for defeat next year and has been running ads in Cincinnati that call Chabot a Bush patsy. Apparently, they do agree on at least one thing: Musharraf is a tyrant.

The resolution calls for Pakistan to protect the security of opposition leaders, and specifically mentions former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who has been in and out of house arrest and has become the leading foe of Musharraf's government.

A similar measure is pending in the Senate, where Democrats John Kerry and Joe Biden have publicly upbraided Pakistan's president. Chabot has been a member of the House Pakistan Caucus, which is supposed to foster closer ties between that nation and the U.S. But it also is a channel for Pakistani Ameicans to lobby members of Congress.

Cincinnati's Brief In Chabot Sit-In Appeal: Protest Could Not Stop Combat In Iraq

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Cincinnati prosecutors have urged a state court of appeals to uphold the criminal trespass convictions of four anti-war protesters who refused to leave U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot's congressional office last year. The city contends the peaceful sit-in had no effect on U.S. policy, and could not have stopped the war in Iraq.

"At the close of evidence, the jury heard the testimony of the appellants. Through cross-examination, they say it showed that it was not reasonable to argue that the harm appellants wished to prevent -- further killing in Iraq -- could have been prevented by their actions. They admitted that their actions were meant to sway Congressman Chabot to sign the declaration and hopefully influence other politicians to take action to end the war. . . . They knew this was not an immediate goal, one that would take time. Sister Jegen described the anti-war activities as a 'movement.' Mrs. Wolf described it as 'a swell.' None of these descriptions is of an imminent personal emergency or crisis. They are self-professed political views, which have been expressly rejected by the courts as a necessity that invites the commission of a crime."

The four protesters -- Greg Flannery, Ellen Dienger, Barbara Wolf and Sister Mary Jegen -- occupied the OH-01 Republican congressman's office in a downtown tower in September 2006. They wanted him to sign the Declaration of Peace. Chabot was in Washington at the time and the protesters vowed to remain until his return. Police removed them from the building around 8 p.m. They were convicted in Hamilton County Municipal Court earlier this year. The case is now in Ohio's 1st District Court of Appeals.

City Prosecutor Jay G. Littner wrote in his appeals brief that the war protesters' actions were no different than anti-abortion protesters -- and he cited a line of cases showing abortion protesters can be convicted of trespassing for activities outside clinics.

"Abortion protesters across the country have maintained they have a privilege to tresspass on the grounds of abortion clinics due to the necessity of preventing the loss of life. The justification of necessity, however, applies only when a defendant seeks to prevent 'a legal harm or evil as opposed to a moral or ethical belief of the individual defendant.' . . . In both anti-war and abortion cases, courts have emphasized that necessity must be based upon a real emergency in which there are no other solutions."

Littner added that the Chabot protesters believed in their cause, but it did not override the law.

"The state does not argue that the appellants lacked credibility; their views were heartfelt and sincere. But this did not weaken the state's proof of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt."

The protesters believe they were denied a fair trial in Cincinnati. The appeals court has not yet set oral arguments on the case. Chabot supports the war and is seeking reelection next year. President Bush was in town last month for a fundraiser that put money in the bank for Chabot's reelection bid.

OH-O1: Rep. Chabot Subpoena Cancelled

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- A judge cancelled a witness subpoena that would have forced Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Oh-01, to testify Monday at the trial of five Iraq War protestors who staged a sit-in at his Cincinnati office last September. House lawyers intervened to block the subpoena and said Chabot's elected office shielded him from being forced to explain his legislative activities in a courtroom.

Among the protections House lawyers cited was the Speech and Debate Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which is available HERE and HERE.

The protestors are scheduled to stand trial on misdemeanor criminal trespass charges Jan. 22. The wanted to compel the GOP lawmaker to describe his reasons for supporting the Iraq War, which they consider illegal and immoral. Their lawyer, Bill Gallagher, contended Chabot's appearance was necessary because he wants to show a jury the protestors actions were a stand against illegal government actions. Chabot's House bio is HERE.

John D. Filamor, assistant counsel for the U.S. House in Washington, said Gallagher's subpoena "to compel Congressman Chabot to testify regarding his legislative activities with respect to the Iraq War, such compelled testimony, aside from being irrelevant, is absolutely barred by the Speech or Debate Clause."

He also said Chabot was not present during the sit-in and had no first hand evidence to offer. He said Chabot also had official duties to attend to the day on the trial. "Collectively, these official activities are very time consuming and require that federal legislators be shielded from compulsory testimony except in extraordinary circumstance," Filamor wrote in the motion to dismiss. "Members of Congress would face an intolerable distraction from their official duties if they could be subpoenaed by any party who stages a demonstration at one of their congressional district offices, and is later prosecuted for such activities."

Ohio War Protest Trial: Rummy Out, Rep. Chabot In

CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Lawyers for the U.S. House are expected to challenge a Hamilton County municipal court judge's ruling that OH-01 Rep. Steve Chabot must appear as a defense witness for a group of Iraq War protestors who face criminal charges over a sit-in at the Republican's office last September. Judge David Stockdale threw out a motion seeking to force former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to appear at the Jan. 22 trial as a material witness for the five protestors.

Chabot, a conservative first elected to the House in 1994, is starting his 7th term. He has been a supporter of the war. Chabot's House Web site is available here.

Elizabeth A. Tye, an assistant prosecutor for the City of Cincinnati, said neither Chabot nor Rumsfeld were present at the sit-in ''and therefore could not offer any testimony relevant to whether or not the defendant acts constituted criminal trespass." Stockdale, a Republican and former law partner of ex-Ohio Senate President Stanley Aronoff, agreed about Rumsfeld. He said Chabot will have to show up. Tye said Ohio's rules of evidence -- she cited Rule 602 -- blocks testimony from witnesses who lack personal knowledge about an event.

''It is respectfully submitted, that the aforementioned subpoena is vexatious in nature, intended by the Defendant to create spectacle that exceeds the scope of issues before this Court,'' Tye said.

Bill Gallagher, the lawyer who represents the protestors, said after the hearing that the House counsel's office has contacted him and said it would intervene to block Chabot from becoming a witness. ''They said they were going to move to quash," he said, adding that Chabot had been served a subpoena outside a gate at Paul Brown Stadium last fall. At the time, he was campaigning for re-election as fans entered a Cincinnati Bengals football game.

Alt/weekly newspaper editor Greg Flannery, who led the sit-in and is a defendant, said he wants to hear Chabot testify about his support for the war, which the protestors say they consider illegal. ''Citizens are the only people who can take the actions to stop the war, and we think that when the jury hears what we did, and why, and what Chabot has to say, maybe there will be an airing of the illegal policies,'' Flannery said. He is the news editor of City Beat, a 50,000-circulation weekly alternative newspaper that is published in SW Ohio. Flannery said he sees no conflicts protesting the war and working as a journalist. ''We don't start off with the assumption objectivity is good. We have a point of view," he said.