CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The Telegraph calls it a "non-aggression pact" between Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani as they team together against Mitt Romney in the Iowa GOP primary. The plan is to eliminate Romney as a serious contender in the presidential race. The Telegraph says the strategy has risks for Giuliani because former Baptist minister Huckabee could emerge No. 1 in South Carolina, a southern state with a January primary that should be culturally comfortable with the former Arkansas governor. And if Huckabee wins big in South Carolina, he might gather a full head of steam for the other southern primaries and be unstoppable.
[UPDATE: 12 pm 12-3-07 -- There are reports of robo calls out of Ohio to Iowa for Huckabee. Some suspect the calls show Giuliani and Huckabee are in tandem to stop Romney.]
Meanwhile, an American Research Group poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina shows the race in that state has become a virtual dead heat between Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee. Last month, Romney had a 6 point lead over Giuliani and Huckabee was in the single digits. Romney appears to be fading, Giuliani is holding and Huckabee has the hot hand.
Showing posts with label Rudy Giuliani. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rudy Giuliani. Show all posts
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
OH-02 GOP Jean Schmidt: Lands Key Appearance At Major Values Voters Confab
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt, who faces an OH-02 primary against a Republican rival angling for evangelical and family values voters, is going to get important face time at a national Values Voters Summit later this month in Washington.
Eight GOP presidential candidates will appear at the gathering, which is called the Washington Briefing 2007 and is billed as the largest confab of values voters ever. Schmidt is on the opening day schedule, and appears with two other right-leaning GOP congresswomen immediately before an address by Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and Republican presidential candidate. Rudy Giuliani also plans to appear, which for him will be like walking into the lion's den.
Details about the conference are here and here. It is a huge conclave of actors in the Christian right, and is cosponsored American Values, Focus on the Family, FRC Action, Alliance Defense Fund and High Impact Leadership Coalition. There will be a presidential straw poll and FRC Action President Tony Perkins' organization calls it "the first pulse-taking of values voter activists now that the (presidential field) is complete."
More is in the press release that describes the straw poll, the speaker list and Giuliani's acceptance of an invitation to attend, which puts him a center stage in hostile territory. Many leaders int he values voters movement have said they cannot support the former New York mayor, who has been married three times, supports gay rights and is not adamant in repealing Roe v. Wade.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Ohio GOP Straw Poll: Fred Thompson Wins, Rudy No. 2
COLUMUBUS (TDB) -- The Ohio Republican Party's news release is here. Apparently, the former Tennessee senator has some support in the Buckeye State.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
DNC Wants Giuliani Adviser Dumped: He Said U.S. Has 'Too Many Mosques'
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Watch U.S. Rep. Peter King say the United States has "too many mosques." The comment is viewed as inflammatory and he's now being branded a bigot. King is a New York Republican and serves on GOP presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani's homeland security advisory board. The Democratic National Committee said the remark smacks of religious intolerance and that King should be booted immediately from his role in Giuliani's campaign.
DNC Press Secretary Stacie Paxton said:
"Congressman King's comments are deplorable and he should apologize immediately. This type of bigoted language has no place in public discourse, especially from the Republicans top lawmaker on the House Homeland Security Committee. Will Rudy Giuliani denounce Peter King's comments and fire King as his homeland security adviser?
"Scapegoating a group of Americans to win elections is an ugly Republican campaign tactic Americans have already rejected. Our country was founded on the principle or religious freedom. Religious profiling and discrimination have no place in our country."
King said in an interview with The Politico that he was concerned about people sympathetic to radical Islam. He said the government should be more active in monitoring and infiltrating. He was concerned about a lack of cooperation by some Muslims in New York State, and he worried about the numbers of mosques. In effect, he equated the presence of mosques with radical islamists.
DNC Press Secretary Stacie Paxton said:
"Congressman King's comments are deplorable and he should apologize immediately. This type of bigoted language has no place in public discourse, especially from the Republicans top lawmaker on the House Homeland Security Committee. Will Rudy Giuliani denounce Peter King's comments and fire King as his homeland security adviser?
"Scapegoating a group of Americans to win elections is an ugly Republican campaign tactic Americans have already rejected. Our country was founded on the principle or religious freedom. Religious profiling and discrimination have no place in our country."
King said in an interview with The Politico that he was concerned about people sympathetic to radical Islam. He said the government should be more active in monitoring and infiltrating. He was concerned about a lack of cooperation by some Muslims in New York State, and he worried about the numbers of mosques. In effect, he equated the presence of mosques with radical islamists.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Cincinnati Dems: Schedule Ohio's First Democratic Straw Poll For September
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The presidential campaign season in political bellwether Ohio has not yet kicked into high gear like Iowa with its early caucuses and New Hampshire and South Carolina, with their early in the nation primaries. But the state is going to get a huge of amount of attention next month because the Hamilton County Democratic Party is sponsoring a presidential straw poll. It could offer some strong signals into which top tier contender is really up in this critical state -- Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama or former Sen. John Edwards.
Is it possible there could be a dark horse somewhere within the rest of the field? Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich?
The Hamilton County Dems are calling their Tuesday, Sept. 11 beauty contest the first Presidential Straw Poll sponsored in Ohio by an arm of the Demcratic Party. Balloting take place at the 20th Century, an old movie theater on the city's east side. The theater is in the Oakley neighborhood. Dems are also going to hear from ODP executive director Doug Kelly, and there is going to be a presentation on how to become a convention delegate.
But the big show, no doubt, will be the straw poll. Expect a standing room crowd.
Bottomline: No top tier candidate can afford to take a drubbing because the next-day headlines would be brutal. And might even be fatal. Who wants to be known as a loser in Ohio, the bellwether state, the center of the political universe when it comes to presidential elections?
[UPDATE: 6:50 PM edt -- Just dug into the Bellwether archives and saw that SW Ohioans can be pretty prescient straw pollers. In February, when the national pundits were saying John McCain was the GOP front runner, Hamilton County Republicans picked Rudy Giuliani as their favorite. They gave him a big win during an annual pancake breakfast where a poll is conducted during election years. McCain was crushed in the voting, and the loss now looks like a portent the Arizona senator's presidential campaign was not generating sparks.]
[UPDATE: 8:12 AM edt -- The Plain Dealer's Washington Bureau Chief Steve Koff picked up on the straw poll item and credits the The Bellwether. Ripples are starting spread. Watch to see if the political beauty contest in Cincy becomes one of the more important campaign agenda items in September. No doubt that FOX and CNN and MSNBC will all decide to give it coverage, probably live.]
Is it possible there could be a dark horse somewhere within the rest of the field? Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich?
The Hamilton County Dems are calling their Tuesday, Sept. 11 beauty contest the first Presidential Straw Poll sponsored in Ohio by an arm of the Demcratic Party. Balloting take place at the 20th Century, an old movie theater on the city's east side. The theater is in the Oakley neighborhood. Dems are also going to hear from ODP executive director Doug Kelly, and there is going to be a presentation on how to become a convention delegate.
But the big show, no doubt, will be the straw poll. Expect a standing room crowd.
Bottomline: No top tier candidate can afford to take a drubbing because the next-day headlines would be brutal. And might even be fatal. Who wants to be known as a loser in Ohio, the bellwether state, the center of the political universe when it comes to presidential elections?
[UPDATE: 6:50 PM edt -- Just dug into the Bellwether archives and saw that SW Ohioans can be pretty prescient straw pollers. In February, when the national pundits were saying John McCain was the GOP front runner, Hamilton County Republicans picked Rudy Giuliani as their favorite. They gave him a big win during an annual pancake breakfast where a poll is conducted during election years. McCain was crushed in the voting, and the loss now looks like a portent the Arizona senator's presidential campaign was not generating sparks.]
[UPDATE: 8:12 AM edt -- The Plain Dealer's Washington Bureau Chief Steve Koff picked up on the straw poll item and credits the The Bellwether. Ripples are starting spread. Watch to see if the political beauty contest in Cincy becomes one of the more important campaign agenda items in September. No doubt that FOX and CNN and MSNBC will all decide to give it coverage, probably live.]
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Ohio Concert By Flag-Waver Lee Greenwood: Country Singer Likes Fred Thompson Over GOP Field
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani barnstorms across the Cincinnati-area today: A fundraiser, a Reds game, a political rally in a pub, then on to conservative talker Sean Hannity's touring show at the Kings Island amusement park in Warren County. One of the acts performing is country music star Lee Greenwood, who is famous for God Bless the USA. Turns out that the flag-waving singer is not a Giuliani fan -- he likes Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee who is expected to jump into the GOP race by September.
Greenwood bills himself as America's Most Recognized Patriot, and he has a huge following that loves his way of praising the red, white and blue values. They are generally conservative folks, sometimes with ties to the military. Greenwood spoke to a Cincinnati freelancer, Chris Varias, for a piece promoting Hannity's Freedom Concert, which is touring this summer to raise money for military families.
Varias asked Greenwood: "Are you endorsing any presidential candidates?" Greenwood's reply ladled out praise like red-eye gravy on biscuits for Thompson, but noted Fred's not running. Yet.
"No. We haven't aligned ourselves with anyone, but at this time in the world we need a strong leader. It would be Fred Thomspon, but he's not running. He's a Tennessean, of course."
All of Varias interview with the singer is posted online HERE. Political observers who are Nashville cognoscenti know Greenwood's words conjured up another song, a tune by Hank Willians Sr., that goes " move it on over, move over little dog because the big dog's steppin' in."
Greenwood bills himself as America's Most Recognized Patriot, and he has a huge following that loves his way of praising the red, white and blue values. They are generally conservative folks, sometimes with ties to the military. Greenwood spoke to a Cincinnati freelancer, Chris Varias, for a piece promoting Hannity's Freedom Concert, which is touring this summer to raise money for military families.
Varias asked Greenwood: "Are you endorsing any presidential candidates?" Greenwood's reply ladled out praise like red-eye gravy on biscuits for Thompson, but noted Fred's not running. Yet.
"No. We haven't aligned ourselves with anyone, but at this time in the world we need a strong leader. It would be Fred Thomspon, but he's not running. He's a Tennessean, of course."
All of Varias interview with the singer is posted online HERE. Political observers who are Nashville cognoscenti know Greenwood's words conjured up another song, a tune by Hank Willians Sr., that goes " move it on over, move over little dog because the big dog's steppin' in."
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Gun-Totin' Mike Huckabee: Fires A (Verbal) Shot At Katie Couric
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has a concealed carry permit, and he's been cautious about saying much about when and where he's packin.' But the Republican presidential candidate makes no bones about his support of the Second Amendment, and has now taken a swipe at CBS anchor Katie Couric, demonstrating his bona fides to the pro-gun voting bloc. He also seems to have gotten in a dig at Couric for allegedly anti-Southern bias.
To do it, though, Huckabee had to dredge up a tale from 1998 when Couric worked for NBC's Today show. His real target, though, may have been Rudy Giuliani, that New York Yankee who led a city with some of the nation's toughest gun laws.
So far, hardly anyone has noticed Huckabee wrote on his blog late Friday about the day Couric interviewed him about a middle school shooting that killed a teacher and four students near Jonesboro, Ark. Huckabee said he defended the South against Kouric's down on Dixie attitude.
''She intimated that mass murder of school campuses seemed to be confined to schools in the Deep South, where there existed a 'culture of guns.' I assured her that yes hunting and ownership of firearms were Southern traditions. At the same time, the murder of innocent schoolchildren was most certainly not and such violence was inexplicable regardless of one's geography."
But Couric, according to Huckabee, seemed determined to humble the South. And, he said, he would not let her get away with that.
"When she continued to press, looking for some validation of her view that these shootings were in some way connected to the South, I firmly reminded her that Colin Ferguson boarded a train in New York and coldly killed 27 people before finally being subdued. That event occurred in New York where the gun laws and among the toughest in the country, and where gun ownership is so much lower than in the South."
Huckabee went on to say he is an NRA member. His blog entry is HERE.
As a conservative political performance it was boffo. In one shot, he accomplished four things. He told the world he owned guns and supported gun rights. He ripped the liberal news media. He portrayed himself as someone who would stick up for Southerners -- always a good move in a region that can still bristle over real or imagined Yankee slights. And he managed to say something that could be interpreted as unflattering about New York, implying that it was more liberal than most places.
Now, isn't there a New Yorker running for president against Huckabee, a New Yorker who is leading in all polls. That's right -- Rudy Giuliani, the one-time mayor of the city ''where gun laws are among the toughest in the country."
To do it, though, Huckabee had to dredge up a tale from 1998 when Couric worked for NBC's Today show. His real target, though, may have been Rudy Giuliani, that New York Yankee who led a city with some of the nation's toughest gun laws.
So far, hardly anyone has noticed Huckabee wrote on his blog late Friday about the day Couric interviewed him about a middle school shooting that killed a teacher and four students near Jonesboro, Ark. Huckabee said he defended the South against Kouric's down on Dixie attitude.
''She intimated that mass murder of school campuses seemed to be confined to schools in the Deep South, where there existed a 'culture of guns.' I assured her that yes hunting and ownership of firearms were Southern traditions. At the same time, the murder of innocent schoolchildren was most certainly not and such violence was inexplicable regardless of one's geography."
But Couric, according to Huckabee, seemed determined to humble the South. And, he said, he would not let her get away with that.
"When she continued to press, looking for some validation of her view that these shootings were in some way connected to the South, I firmly reminded her that Colin Ferguson boarded a train in New York and coldly killed 27 people before finally being subdued. That event occurred in New York where the gun laws and among the toughest in the country, and where gun ownership is so much lower than in the South."
Huckabee went on to say he is an NRA member. His blog entry is HERE.
As a conservative political performance it was boffo. In one shot, he accomplished four things. He told the world he owned guns and supported gun rights. He ripped the liberal news media. He portrayed himself as someone who would stick up for Southerners -- always a good move in a region that can still bristle over real or imagined Yankee slights. And he managed to say something that could be interpreted as unflattering about New York, implying that it was more liberal than most places.
Now, isn't there a New Yorker running for president against Huckabee, a New Yorker who is leading in all polls. That's right -- Rudy Giuliani, the one-time mayor of the city ''where gun laws are among the toughest in the country."
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Rasmussen On Minnesota Senate: Dem Al Franken Has Real Shot
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Minnesota freshman U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman has less than 50% support, and that means the Republican has a serious challenge on his hands from Al Franken, the comedian-turned-Air America talkshow host who is after Coleman's job.
Coleman holds a 10-point lead over Franken, which is slender for an incumbent seeking reelection. Franken could face opposition in Minnesota's 2008 Democratic primary, but the poll shows he's already competitive against the Republican.
"Generally speaking, incumbents who poll below 50% are potentially vulnerable."
That news today from Rasmussen Reports, a polling organization that said Coleman was up 46% to 36% in its first survey of 500 likely Minnesota voters. Rasmussen conducted the telephone survey March 7 and released the results today. It was encouraging news for Franken, who left Air America last month but has wondered aloud if voters are ready for a comedian. He first came to wide public attention on Saturday Night Live in the show's early years.
Although voters under 30 prefer Franken over Coleman, Rasmussen said Franken has a high unfavorable rating, 46%, which exceeds Coleman's by four points. The results are HERE.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen said the Republican presidential race is all Rudy, Rudy, Rudy. Sen. John McCain (16%) is slumping but remains No. 2 to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (37%), who is padding his lead. Newt Gingrich (11%) is third and Mitt Romney (10%) is on his heels.
Rasmussen said Giuliani beats everyone on the Democratic side in head-to-head matchups. And the polling organization delivered a downbeat assessment about McCain.
"This is the lowest level of support so far for someone who not long ago was presumed to be the front runner for the nomination."
Coleman holds a 10-point lead over Franken, which is slender for an incumbent seeking reelection. Franken could face opposition in Minnesota's 2008 Democratic primary, but the poll shows he's already competitive against the Republican.
"Generally speaking, incumbents who poll below 50% are potentially vulnerable."
That news today from Rasmussen Reports, a polling organization that said Coleman was up 46% to 36% in its first survey of 500 likely Minnesota voters. Rasmussen conducted the telephone survey March 7 and released the results today. It was encouraging news for Franken, who left Air America last month but has wondered aloud if voters are ready for a comedian. He first came to wide public attention on Saturday Night Live in the show's early years.
Although voters under 30 prefer Franken over Coleman, Rasmussen said Franken has a high unfavorable rating, 46%, which exceeds Coleman's by four points. The results are HERE.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen said the Republican presidential race is all Rudy, Rudy, Rudy. Sen. John McCain (16%) is slumping but remains No. 2 to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (37%), who is padding his lead. Newt Gingrich (11%) is third and Mitt Romney (10%) is on his heels.
Rasmussen said Giuliani beats everyone on the Democratic side in head-to-head matchups. And the polling organization delivered a downbeat assessment about McCain.
"This is the lowest level of support so far for someone who not long ago was presumed to be the front runner for the nomination."
U.S. GOP Loves Adulterers For President Says Canadian On Zogby's Website
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Zogby International, the polling firm, has an article on its Website from Canada that says the "Scarlet A" which once disqualified presidential candidates apparently has no impact today. Adulterers are strong contenders for the White House on the Republican side. Zogby did not poll on moral issues, but posted the article for newsworthiness and because it mentioned the firm's survey showing President George Bush's Iraq War policies are unpopular among Americans.
The article is HERE , and it notes Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Newt Gingrich all fooled around and have constituencies that want them in the White House. It wonders how anyone can trust them "when they have betrayed their own wives" by flouting marriage vows. The author is David Pyne, who wrote for a Canadian site called Enter Stage Right. Pyne predicts the Democrats would have have a field day tarring any of the three as total hypocrites on moral issues.
"How is it that the scarlet 'A" which used to be a disqualifier for presidential candidates even on the Democratic Party side as recently as 1987 when Gary Hart withdrew from the presidential contest in the wake of his affair with Donna Rice and for which the GOP impeached President Bill Clinton has now become a non-issue [in a] party known for its its support of social conservatism and family values?
"When John McCain ran for President in 2000 as a former adulterer it was something of a novelty. This election season, however, it is appearing increasingly to be the norm as GOP voters completely ignore or forgive such major past personal 'indiscretions' in search of finding a candidate who they believe can win."
The article is HERE , and it notes Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Newt Gingrich all fooled around and have constituencies that want them in the White House. It wonders how anyone can trust them "when they have betrayed their own wives" by flouting marriage vows. The author is David Pyne, who wrote for a Canadian site called Enter Stage Right. Pyne predicts the Democrats would have have a field day tarring any of the three as total hypocrites on moral issues.
"How is it that the scarlet 'A" which used to be a disqualifier for presidential candidates even on the Democratic Party side as recently as 1987 when Gary Hart withdrew from the presidential contest in the wake of his affair with Donna Rice and for which the GOP impeached President Bill Clinton has now become a non-issue [in a] party known for its its support of social conservatism and family values?
"When John McCain ran for President in 2000 as a former adulterer it was something of a novelty. This election season, however, it is appearing increasingly to be the norm as GOP voters completely ignore or forgive such major past personal 'indiscretions' in search of finding a candidate who they believe can win."
Monday, February 26, 2007
New Zogby Poll: Obama Makes 'Dramatic' Gains
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- A new Zogby International poll shows Illinois Sen. Barack Obama holds a solid second-place in the Democratic presidential field and managed to gain ground this month on the leader, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. Obama was campaigning today in Ohio, and Zogby's poll was good news on top of the large crowds in Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland. Obama raised about $500,000 at a morning fundraiser in downtown Cincinnati that was closed to reporters.
"In a measurement of how firm the support is for the candidates overall, Clinton's support is just a bit weaker than that of Obama. A slight majority of Clinton supporters -- 54% -- said they are likely to change their minds before they actually cast a primary of caucus vote, while 48% of Obama supporters agreed," Zogby reported. The poll was a telephone survey of 439 likely voters, and was taken Feb. 22-24 after last week's tussle over Hollywood mogul David Geffen's remarks that jabbed both Hillary and Bill Clinton.
Zogby said the numbers are Clinton, 33%; Obama, 25%; John Edwards, 12%; Bill Richardson, 5%; Joe Biden, 2%; Wesley Clark, 1%. Last week's survey found only 20% of Democrats undecided. Clinton's percentage rose 4% since an early January survey and Obama had an 11% increase. Zogby said "Obama has made dramatic gains in the last six weeks."
On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani increased his lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain. Zogby had Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice in the survey and she drew 7% support, a tie with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The Zogby poll is HERE , and it shows a generational gap has developed on the Dem side. Younger voters like Obama, while older Democrats prefer Hillary.
In matchups against McCain and Giuliani, Zogby said she loses to both.
"In a measurement of how firm the support is for the candidates overall, Clinton's support is just a bit weaker than that of Obama. A slight majority of Clinton supporters -- 54% -- said they are likely to change their minds before they actually cast a primary of caucus vote, while 48% of Obama supporters agreed," Zogby reported. The poll was a telephone survey of 439 likely voters, and was taken Feb. 22-24 after last week's tussle over Hollywood mogul David Geffen's remarks that jabbed both Hillary and Bill Clinton.
Zogby said the numbers are Clinton, 33%; Obama, 25%; John Edwards, 12%; Bill Richardson, 5%; Joe Biden, 2%; Wesley Clark, 1%. Last week's survey found only 20% of Democrats undecided. Clinton's percentage rose 4% since an early January survey and Obama had an 11% increase. Zogby said "Obama has made dramatic gains in the last six weeks."
On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani increased his lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain. Zogby had Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice in the survey and she drew 7% support, a tie with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The Zogby poll is HERE , and it shows a generational gap has developed on the Dem side. Younger voters like Obama, while older Democrats prefer Hillary.
In matchups against McCain and Giuliani, Zogby said she loses to both.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Pollster Rasmussen: Believes Al Gore Not Running
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- The Rasmussen polling organization now takes Al Gore at his word he's not interested in becoming an '08 presidential candidate and is banishing Gore from weekly tracking surveys of the Democratic field.
Before the move, Rasmussen Reports found that Gore was polling nearly as well as former Sen. John Edwards among likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. In head-to-head matchups with Republicans, Gore solidly led Newt Gingrich and ran fairly strong against Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain.
Rasmussen's final numbers this week on the Dems with Gore included: Clinton, 28%; Obama, 24%; Edwards, 11%; Gore, 10%.
Last week: Clinton, 28%; Obama, 23%; Edwards, 13%; Gore, 8%.
The newest data indicates the contest could be turning into a Clinton/Obama showdown. Edwards has lost ground among Democratic voters, a decline that shows up in other polls as well. Did the blogger flap hurt him? Still, Rasumussen said Edwards had the highest favorable rating among likely voters at this time, 53%, while Clinton, Gore and Obama trailed at 50%.
Some think Edwards took a veiled shot at Clinton during an AFSCME-sponsored presidential forum Wednesday in Carson City, Nev., when he apologized for voting in favor of the Iraq War as a senator and implied others should do the same. "This is not a time for political calculation. It is a time for political courage," Edwards said. Sen. Clinton refused to call her initial support of the resolution allowing the use of military force in Iraq a mistake, and said at the forum, "My vote was a sincere vote based on the facts and assurances I had at the time."
Meanwhile, Rasumussen said it made the decision to drop Gore from new polls because the former vice president has repeatedly signaled he won't run. "While Al Gore attracts more support than many who are actively seeking the nomination, the Democrats' Election 2000 nominee indicated again last week that he has no intention of running for office at this time. Therefore, unless something changes, Rasmussen Reports will no longer include the former Vice President in our ongoing tracking of this race."
Before the move, Rasmussen Reports found that Gore was polling nearly as well as former Sen. John Edwards among likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. In head-to-head matchups with Republicans, Gore solidly led Newt Gingrich and ran fairly strong against Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain.
Rasmussen's final numbers this week on the Dems with Gore included: Clinton, 28%; Obama, 24%; Edwards, 11%; Gore, 10%.
Last week: Clinton, 28%; Obama, 23%; Edwards, 13%; Gore, 8%.
The newest data indicates the contest could be turning into a Clinton/Obama showdown. Edwards has lost ground among Democratic voters, a decline that shows up in other polls as well. Did the blogger flap hurt him? Still, Rasumussen said Edwards had the highest favorable rating among likely voters at this time, 53%, while Clinton, Gore and Obama trailed at 50%.
Some think Edwards took a veiled shot at Clinton during an AFSCME-sponsored presidential forum Wednesday in Carson City, Nev., when he apologized for voting in favor of the Iraq War as a senator and implied others should do the same. "This is not a time for political calculation. It is a time for political courage," Edwards said. Sen. Clinton refused to call her initial support of the resolution allowing the use of military force in Iraq a mistake, and said at the forum, "My vote was a sincere vote based on the facts and assurances I had at the time."
Meanwhile, Rasumussen said it made the decision to drop Gore from new polls because the former vice president has repeatedly signaled he won't run. "While Al Gore attracts more support than many who are actively seeking the nomination, the Democrats' Election 2000 nominee indicated again last week that he has no intention of running for office at this time. Therefore, unless something changes, Rasmussen Reports will no longer include the former Vice President in our ongoing tracking of this race."
Sunday, February 18, 2007
Ohio GOP Straw Poll: Rudy Wins, McCain Pancakes
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has chosen former Ohio U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine to run his campaign in the Buckeye State, got clobbered in an annual straw poll that takes place during a Republican club pancake breakfast in suburban Cincinnati. Rudy Giuliani came in first, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney tied for second, and McCain finished third.
Giuliani received 33.75% of the votes cast at the event, which was like a caucus.
The vote was at the Northwest Hamilton County Republican Club, in an area of Ohio that is diehard GOP. Eighty Republicans took part in the poll and all were activists or party workers. They humbled McCain, who received 10 votes. On a cold, chilly day, the the gathering had the flavor of an Iowa caucus, though months before Iowa has its caucuses. McCain barely had more supporters than Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback -- so far a non-entity who doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Yet Brownback wound up breathing down McCain's neck.
McCain was in Cincinnati the day before the straw poll, but kept a low profile and met with GOP heavyweights to raise money. Then he skipped the Saturday Senate vote on Iraq, opening himself to heavy CRITICISM from national Democrats. McCain headed to Iowa, where he campaigned and said the Senate vote wasn't really important important. The Democrats issued this statement:
"It's not called the Bush-McCain Iraq war escalation plan for nothing,"said Democratic National Committee spokesman Luis Miranda. "McCain's refusal to show up for a vote on his own Iraq plan doesn't bode well for his presidential ambitions. While conservatives still don't trust him,McCain's decision to campaign instead of vote offers the American people an unflattering glimpse at an establishment candidate who will do anything to win the Republican primary."
Giuliani leads the GOP field in most national polls, though he's not in step with Ohio conservatives on gay rights or abortion. But he is viewed as a competent leader, and his name recognition is off the charts. Some dismiss the straw poll Saturday as merely a beauty contest, but the people dissing it are the ones who got ugly results. Hamilton County is the seat of social conservatism in Ohio -- the home of Phil Burress' Citizens for Community Values, the birthplace of National Right-to-Life, the home of former GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the state's most outspoken conservative leader. Giuliani had deep support in the activist crowd, and it's a sign he has political muscle in unexpected places, and it demonstrates McCain's weakness at the moment.
And plenty of Cincinnati Republicans heard that McCain skipped the Senate vote -- they wanted him there on the job. HERE's the Cincinnati Enquirer's version of the story written by a freelance reporter. The headline is what sticks out: "Giuliani Favorite of Local GOP Club."
Giuliani received 33.75% of the votes cast at the event, which was like a caucus.
The vote was at the Northwest Hamilton County Republican Club, in an area of Ohio that is diehard GOP. Eighty Republicans took part in the poll and all were activists or party workers. They humbled McCain, who received 10 votes. On a cold, chilly day, the the gathering had the flavor of an Iowa caucus, though months before Iowa has its caucuses. McCain barely had more supporters than Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback -- so far a non-entity who doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Yet Brownback wound up breathing down McCain's neck.
McCain was in Cincinnati the day before the straw poll, but kept a low profile and met with GOP heavyweights to raise money. Then he skipped the Saturday Senate vote on Iraq, opening himself to heavy CRITICISM from national Democrats. McCain headed to Iowa, where he campaigned and said the Senate vote wasn't really important important. The Democrats issued this statement:
"It's not called the Bush-McCain Iraq war escalation plan for nothing,"said Democratic National Committee spokesman Luis Miranda. "McCain's refusal to show up for a vote on his own Iraq plan doesn't bode well for his presidential ambitions. While conservatives still don't trust him,McCain's decision to campaign instead of vote offers the American people an unflattering glimpse at an establishment candidate who will do anything to win the Republican primary."
Giuliani leads the GOP field in most national polls, though he's not in step with Ohio conservatives on gay rights or abortion. But he is viewed as a competent leader, and his name recognition is off the charts. Some dismiss the straw poll Saturday as merely a beauty contest, but the people dissing it are the ones who got ugly results. Hamilton County is the seat of social conservatism in Ohio -- the home of Phil Burress' Citizens for Community Values, the birthplace of National Right-to-Life, the home of former GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the state's most outspoken conservative leader. Giuliani had deep support in the activist crowd, and it's a sign he has political muscle in unexpected places, and it demonstrates McCain's weakness at the moment.
And plenty of Cincinnati Republicans heard that McCain skipped the Senate vote -- they wanted him there on the job. HERE's the Cincinnati Enquirer's version of the story written by a freelance reporter. The headline is what sticks out: "Giuliani Favorite of Local GOP Club."
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Rasmussen On GOP '08: Everbody Loves Rudy Today
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- Most Republicans view Rudy Giuliani as "politically moderate," a label that is supposed to be the kiss of death in a GOP presidential primary. But Rasmussen is out with polling data this Valentine's Day showing hizzoner has widened his lead over Sen. John McCain, No. 2, and everybody else on the right. In fact, the pollster says America loves the mayor and if the election were held today he'd beat every Democratic contender as well.
Romance and Rudy are in the air. But how long might it last? Hearts break and sweeties do separate -- as the mayor knows all too well.
The February 5-8 national telephone survey of 507 likely Republican primary voters is the latest in Rasmussen's weekly tracking polls, and it gives the former New York mayor a five point jump . He holds a "solid, double digit lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination," Rasmussen reported. The numbers are Giuliani, 32%; McCain, 18%; Gingrich, 10%, and Romney, 8%. Republicans were surveyed before Romney announced this week, and before Giuliani made his speech to the California GOP state convention last Saturday that seemed to indicate he was officially a candidate. Or maybe the speech didn't imply that. Nobody is exactly sure, including the mayor.
Rasmussen Reports said perceptions of McCain have shifted among Democrats and independents, with more saying he is a conservative than in December. McCain is pushing for more troops in Iraq. Among Republicans, McCain is seen as a moderate. And so is Giuliani, an ideological tag that has not hurt him in his own party. In fact, Rasmussen said 66% of Republicans view hizzoner as an ideological moderate.
"These perceptions help explain why Giuliani consistently outperforms McCain in general election matchups against leading Democrats. Giuliani leads against every Democrat including Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama, former Senator John Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore," Rasmussen said.
The entire Rasmussen Reports is HERE.
Romance and Rudy are in the air. But how long might it last? Hearts break and sweeties do separate -- as the mayor knows all too well.
The February 5-8 national telephone survey of 507 likely Republican primary voters is the latest in Rasmussen's weekly tracking polls, and it gives the former New York mayor a five point jump . He holds a "solid, double digit lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination," Rasmussen reported. The numbers are Giuliani, 32%; McCain, 18%; Gingrich, 10%, and Romney, 8%. Republicans were surveyed before Romney announced this week, and before Giuliani made his speech to the California GOP state convention last Saturday that seemed to indicate he was officially a candidate. Or maybe the speech didn't imply that. Nobody is exactly sure, including the mayor.
Rasmussen Reports said perceptions of McCain have shifted among Democrats and independents, with more saying he is a conservative than in December. McCain is pushing for more troops in Iraq. Among Republicans, McCain is seen as a moderate. And so is Giuliani, an ideological tag that has not hurt him in his own party. In fact, Rasmussen said 66% of Republicans view hizzoner as an ideological moderate.
"These perceptions help explain why Giuliani consistently outperforms McCain in general election matchups against leading Democrats. Giuliani leads against every Democrat including Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama, former Senator John Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore," Rasmussen said.
The entire Rasmussen Reports is HERE.
Monday, February 05, 2007
Rudy Giuliani Hires GOP Pollster Who Works Ohio
CINCINNATI (TDB) -- A prominent GOP consultant who polled Ohio for former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine and former State Auditor Betty Montgomery in 2006 has been hired by Rudy Giuliani, which probably is a strong signal hizzoner plans to formally enter the '08 presidential race.
[UPDATE: 5 p.m. Rudy is in the race. He hasn't made a big speech yet, but the paperwork is being filed. I saw an interesting take on Giuliani in Sunday's New York Times by Mayor Ed Koch, the Democrat, about 9/11. It was from a book that is coming out called Flawed or Flawless? "Nobody could have done it better than Rudy. But I believe that many, if not most, mayors would have done as well because that's your job. And that saved Rudy's reputation. He became mayor for the world, and you should not take any credit away from him. But to say what he did was unique would be wrong," Koch said. ]
Brian Tringali is a partner with the The Tarrance Group, a research and consulting firm that works for 5 governors, 10 senators and 45 House members. His bio is HERE.
Tringali may not be a household name in state politics, but he turned up in an Ohio Republican Party press release last November that knocked a Columbus Dispatch poll showing DeWine and Montgomery were sinking statewide. They both were defeated on Nov. 8. A portion of the ORP news release is here:
"For Immediate Release Contact: John McClellandSunday, November 5, 2006 (614) 394-3456
Pollsters Discredit Results of Dispatch Poll
Even Dispatch article seems to raise questions the poll’s accuracy
(COLUMBUS) – Veteran Ohio pollsters raised doubts today about the validity of a mail poll released by The Columbus Dispatch showing extraordinary Democratic leads in statewide races.
“The Columbus Dispatch poll released on Sunday certainly does not match our own tracking polls for many of these statewide campaigns,” said longtime Ohio pollster Brian Tringali, a partner with The Tarrance Group and the pollster for U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine and attorney general candidate Betty Montgomery. “The inherent problem with a mail-in survey conducted over a 10-day period is that it is bound to miss late breaking voter movement. Most importantly, too many Ohio voters change their minds during the final two weeks of a campaign.”
Besides politicians, Tringali has polled for groups questioning legalized gambling and gay marriage.
Giuliani came into Ohio in the campaign's closing days to stump for DeWine. The New Yorker is scheduled to deliver the keynote address Saturday at the California GOP's annual convention in Sacramento, and there is growing speculation -- nothing confirmed -- that will use the forum to announce he is officially in the '08 contest.
Hizzoner's national strategy director, Brent Seaborn, put out a memo last week showing Giuliani held leads in 10 states, including Ohio. Seaborn wrote: "Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor's story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support."
Key words -- ''Reagan-like optimism" and "continued growth." It sure looks like Giuliani is running. Is he going to try to out-Gipper the rest of the GOP field? The full text of the Seaborn memo is HERE.
[UPDATE: 5 p.m. Rudy is in the race. He hasn't made a big speech yet, but the paperwork is being filed. I saw an interesting take on Giuliani in Sunday's New York Times by Mayor Ed Koch, the Democrat, about 9/11. It was from a book that is coming out called Flawed or Flawless? "Nobody could have done it better than Rudy. But I believe that many, if not most, mayors would have done as well because that's your job. And that saved Rudy's reputation. He became mayor for the world, and you should not take any credit away from him. But to say what he did was unique would be wrong," Koch said. ]
Brian Tringali is a partner with the The Tarrance Group, a research and consulting firm that works for 5 governors, 10 senators and 45 House members. His bio is HERE.
Tringali may not be a household name in state politics, but he turned up in an Ohio Republican Party press release last November that knocked a Columbus Dispatch poll showing DeWine and Montgomery were sinking statewide. They both were defeated on Nov. 8. A portion of the ORP news release is here:
"For Immediate Release Contact: John McClellandSunday, November 5, 2006 (614) 394-3456
Pollsters Discredit Results of Dispatch Poll
Even Dispatch article seems to raise questions the poll’s accuracy
(COLUMBUS) – Veteran Ohio pollsters raised doubts today about the validity of a mail poll released by The Columbus Dispatch showing extraordinary Democratic leads in statewide races.
“The Columbus Dispatch poll released on Sunday certainly does not match our own tracking polls for many of these statewide campaigns,” said longtime Ohio pollster Brian Tringali, a partner with The Tarrance Group and the pollster for U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine and attorney general candidate Betty Montgomery. “The inherent problem with a mail-in survey conducted over a 10-day period is that it is bound to miss late breaking voter movement. Most importantly, too many Ohio voters change their minds during the final two weeks of a campaign.”
Besides politicians, Tringali has polled for groups questioning legalized gambling and gay marriage.
Giuliani came into Ohio in the campaign's closing days to stump for DeWine. The New Yorker is scheduled to deliver the keynote address Saturday at the California GOP's annual convention in Sacramento, and there is growing speculation -- nothing confirmed -- that will use the forum to announce he is officially in the '08 contest.
Hizzoner's national strategy director, Brent Seaborn, put out a memo last week showing Giuliani held leads in 10 states, including Ohio. Seaborn wrote: "Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor's story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support."
Key words -- ''Reagan-like optimism" and "continued growth." It sure looks like Giuliani is running. Is he going to try to out-Gipper the rest of the GOP field? The full text of the Seaborn memo is HERE.
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